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Starmer out by June 30, 2026? ↗
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548-219
· Starmer out by...? · category: Grooming Gangs, Politics, Starmer, UK, World, keir
· resolves
run_id: 63ec05e2-dfe1-404a-9e03-fda7e41648ea
· started
· status
completed
· plan_emitted
view position ↗
○ closed
· VERDICT_FLIP
·
+$2.68
signal detected
● executed
detect_reversal
direction
DOWN
current / peak
44.5% / 46.5%
move_start
35.8%
reversal
+2.0pp
move size / hours
10.7pp / 31.0h
shape
spike
72h range
35.0%—46.5% (Δ11.5pp)
since peak
9.0h
Price rose 10.7pp from 35.8% to 46.5% over 31.0h (spike), then reversed. Now at 44.5%, down 2.0pp from peak, 9.0h after the peak.
news gathered
● executed
news retrieval (tomographic)
raw→filtered: 342 → 44
quality: HIGH
tokens: 12201
article_antithesis
neutral
Trump issues fresh Strait of Hormuz threat, says there can't be a deal with Iran unless 'the rest of their country' is blown up
article_precursor
neutral
UK and France will hold meetings this week to reopen Hormuz
article_thesis
neutral
Sky News halted for breaking update in major blow to Keir Starmer
article_thesis
neutral
Las contradicciones sobre el caso Mandelson continúan acosando a Keir Starmer
article_thesis
neutral
Keir Starmer is all alone
article_thesis
neutral
Keir Starmer faces grilling after 'dismissive' claim and Peter Mandelson row
article_thesis
neutral
Wednesday briefing: Can Keir Starmer's premiership survive more revelations about his handling of diplomatic posts?
article_thesis
neutral
Keir Starmer has been brutally exposed
article_thesis
neutral
Olly Robbins puts Keir Starmer's coat on an even shooglier peg
article_thesis
neutral
UK energy crisis seeps into local election support for the anti-war Greens | The National
article_thesis
neutral
The rush to appease Trump led Keir Starmer into this ethical void | Rafael Behr
article_thesis
neutral
Keir Starmer's growing list of apologies
article_thesis
neutral
Unraveling the Peter Mandelson Controversy: What It Means for Keir Starmer's Leadership - Internewscast Journal
gnews_indirect_evidence
neutral
U.K. PM Starmer under pressure over Epstein-linked appointment crisis - NBC News
article_thesis
neutral
ANDREW NEIL: Keir Starmer's a dead man walking
AI verdict
● executed
Prompt-MR · misprice analysis
OVERPRICED
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: SMALL
action: NO
override: OMIT_STRONG_ASSESSMENT
gpt-5 · prompt_2_misprice_v8.5.4 · 15976 tokens
Semantic Polarity: YES=Starmer is out of office by June 30, 2026; NO=he remains PM through that date. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=4, D=1, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=4, D=1 (priced-in: E=2, D=1). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN Price move direction: UP (from 36% to 46%) Alignment: OPPOSITE Theta: DOWN — opposed No Strong Divergence: news flow leans pro-YES, so price and momentum are aligned, but all signals are process-level rather than resolution-level. ★ DIRECT-wise, the opposition parties’ call for a no-confidence vote is not a scheduled/whipped vote, Robbins’ testimony increases pressure but does not trigger removal, and an allied (Welsh) leader distancing plus “mood sours” are signs of strain, not cabinet resignations or governing-party defections; none of these meet the settlement outcome (resignation/removal or a lost confidence vote). A 10pp+ spike on process-only pressure is larger than justified by the incremental news; absent concrete institutional steps (scheduled no-confidence vote with Labour rebels, cabinet walkouts, or Starmer signaling resignation), some mean reversion is likely.
rule audit
● executed
audit_gate
✓
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