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○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 1615a164-ff0e-4787-8300-e41187619fcc
· signal: b523996b
· event: Starmer out by...?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● VERDICT FLIP
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$+2.68
pnl %
+5.36%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: SMALL
broker: paper
Assessment: OVERPRICED Conviction: MEDIUM Size: SMALL Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES=Starmer is out of office by June 30, 2026; NO=he remains PM through that date. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=4, D=1, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=4, D=1 (priced-in: E=2, D=1). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN Price move direction: UP (from 36% to 46%) Alignment: OPPOSITE Theta: DOWN — opposed No Strong Divergence: news flow leans pro-YES, so price and moment
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLOSE | 89 | 0.5900 | 0.5900 → 0.5900 (1 lvl) | VERDICT_FLIP | $+2.68 |
re-evaluation history Phase 2 trigger detector + Stage 1 cheap filter + Stage 2 gpt-5 verdict · shows what news fired the trigger and how the LLM re-judged it
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate escalating pressure and potential crises surrounding Keir Starmer's leadership, which could significantly impact market sentiment.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information but rather reiterate existing concerns about Keir Starmer's leadership and controversies.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines focus on US-Iran negotiations, which do not directly impact Keir Starmer's situation or leadership challenges already highlighted.
evidence news (1 items · score 0.01 )
- 2026-05-01T20:23 [KBC | Kenya's Watc] Egypt, US discuss progress of US-Iran negotiations
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing concerns about Keir Starmer's leadership without introducing new information or developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate escalating pressure and potential crises surrounding Keir Starmer's leadership, which could significantly impact market sentiment.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate a significant escalation in the scrutiny and pressure on Keir Starmer, potentially impacting his leadership stability and market perceptions.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate a significant escalation in the scrutiny and pressure on Keir Starmer, potentially impacting his leadership stability and market perceptions.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate a significant escalation in the scrutiny and pressure on Keir Starmer, potentially impacting his leadership stability.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate a significant escalation in the scrutiny and pressure on Keir Starmer, potentially impacting his leadership stability.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate a significant escalation in the scrutiny and pressure on Keir Starmer, potentially impacting his leadership stability and market perceptions.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate a significant escalation in the scrutiny and pressure on Keir Starmer, potentially impacting his leadership stability and market perceptions.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate escalating pressure and potential crises surrounding Keir Starmer's leadership, which could significantly impact market sentiment.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate escalating pressure and potential crises surrounding Keir Starmer's leadership, which could significantly impact market sentiment.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ HIGH
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/HIGH
TIME_BACKSTOP
→ EXITED
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate escalating pressure and potential crises surrounding Keir Starmer's leadership, which could significantly impact market sentiment.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
OMIT
/ MEDIUM
· FAIR
flipped & exited: fill=0.59 shares=89.28571428571428 pnl=$2.6786
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.56, "size_usd": 50.0, "target_price": 0.639, "stop_price": 0.471, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_PARTIAL
{"yes_bid": 0.02, "yes_ask": 0.94, "yes_mid": 0.48, "yes_spread_pp": 92.0, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.06, "walk_top_size": 82.0, "walk_filled_shares": 82.0, "walk_unfilled_shares": 7.29, "walk_avg_fill": 0.06, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.06, "side_bid": 0.06, "side_mid": 0.52, "fill_price": 0.06, "fill_shares": 82.0, "is_partial": true, "remaining_before": 89.29, "target_price": 0.639, "stop_price": 0.471, "entry_price": 0.56, "original_size_shares": 89.28571428571428, "fill_pnl_pct": -89.29, "fill_pnl_usd": -41.0, "pnl_pct_mid": -7.14, "pnl_pct_top": -89.29, "trigger_vs_level_pp": -41.1, "fill_id": "90dd8637-ddbb-4cd6-a8e3-b6d37c426b0f"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.4, "yes_ask": 0.41, "yes_mid": 0.405, "yes_spread_pp": 1.0, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.59, "walk_top_size": 30170.14, "walk_filled_shares": 89.29, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.59, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.59, "side_bid": 0.59, "side_mid": 0.595, "fill_price": 0.59, "fill_shares": 89.29, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 89.29, "force_exit_reason": "VERDICT_FLIP", "force_exit_notes": "reeval[2116fc45] entry=NO/MEDIUM new=OMIT/MEDIUM", "entry_price": 0.56, "original_size_shares": 89.28571428571428, "fill_id": "b104cab7-9036-465b-93f7-688e7227f510"}