US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? ↗

Price fell 5.0pp from 34.5% to 29.5% over 1h (spike). Now at 29.5%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 34.5%, 72h range: 29.5%-50.0%] [EVR: 72h range 20.5pp — extreme volatility regime]

Days to resolution: 60 days. Theta-bleed is active (deadline within 90 days, trend is DOWN, positive action required for YES). The trend is DOWN, implying the probability of a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 is becoming less likely. The only ★DIRECT event is Russia entering Iran-US peace talks, with a high-level meeting between Iranian and Russian officials and a Trump-Putin call—this is a process signal toward mediation, which is a de-escalation (D1) for the NO side (i.e., it makes a deal more likely, thus bearish for NO). The CONTEXT events include ongoing mediation efforts (Pakistan as mediator), some escalation rhetoric (Israel defense chief warning of renewed strikes, US signaling extended blockade), and skepticism about US mediation effectiveness, but none of these are concrete escalation actions or direct blockers to a deal. The news is thus ASYMMETRIC MIXED: the only concrete ★DIRECT signal is a process step toward talks, which supports the DOWN move (NO less likely). Momentum signals: trend=1 (de-escalation/process toward deal), counter=0 (no concrete escalation or deal-blocking actions). News momentum is not intensifying but is not fading—there is a new mediation process, but no breakthrough or collapse. Remaining space: 9.5pp (from 29.5% to 20%). Step 3 hard rule check: RULE 3 (ASYMMETRIC MIXED) applies—one side (de-escalation/process) has higher quality due to a concrete diplomatic step, so CONTINUE is allowed but conviction capped at MEDIUM and estimated_move ≤ 5pp.