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○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 343213ee-bad9-4767-bfc6-634f1b3fb4a1
· signal: df449c49
· event: US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
PHASE2 HARD TIER1
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$+0.53
pnl %
+0.70%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: MEDIUM
broker: paper
MOM DOWN — anchor→trigger: 34.5% → 29.5% over 1h, cusum=-6.859. Days to resolution: 60 days. Theta-bleed is active (deadline within 90 days, trend is DOWN, positive action required for YES). The trend is DOWN, implying the probability of a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 is becoming less likely. The only ★DIRECT event is Russia entering Iran-US peace talks, with
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 106 | 0.7100 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 106 | 0.6700 | 0.6700 → 0.6700 (1 lvl) | VERDICT_FLIP | $-4.23 |
re-evaluation history Phase 2 trigger detector + Stage 1 cheap filter + Stage 2 gpt-5 verdict · shows what news fired the trigger and how the LLM re-judged it
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: New developments in the US-Iran nuclear deal negotiations could significantly impact market expectations and positions.
stage2_error:retrieval_failed:unknown news strategy: mom
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: New developments in the US-Iran nuclear deal negotiations could significantly impact the timeline and dynamics of the situation.
stage2_error:retrieval_failed:unknown news strategy: mom
TIME_BACKSTOP
→ EXITED
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: New developments in the US-Iran nuclear deal negotiations could significantly impact the market outlook.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
OMIT
flipped & exited: fill=0.67 shares=105.63380281690141 pnl=$-4.2254
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.71, "size_usd": 75.0, "target_price": 0.745, "stop_price": 0.65, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.32, "yes_ask": 0.33, "yes_mid": 0.325, "yes_spread_pp": 1.0, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.67, "walk_top_size": 4397.06, "walk_filled_shares": 105.63, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.67, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.67, "side_bid": 0.67, "side_mid": 0.675, "fill_price": 0.67, "fill_shares": 105.63, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 105.63, "force_exit_reason": "VERDICT_FLIP", "force_exit_notes": "reeval[22e7bd92] entry=BUY_NO/MEDIUM new=OMIT/", "entry_price": 0.71, "original_size_shares": 105.63380281690141, "fill_id": "88434c54-9f08-481e-8138-35c76631fa5a"}