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Iran leadership change by June 30? ↗
iran-leadership-change-by-june-30-689-922
· Iran leadership change by...? · category: Geopolitics, Iran, Iran Regime, Khamenei, Khamenei out, Mojtaba, Mojtaba Khamenei, Mojtaba out, Politics, ayatollah
· resolves
run_id: 6fb408f8-ffc4-4181-a274-3fd7993b695e
· started
· status
completed
· plan_emitted
view position ↗
● open
signal detected
● executed
detect_reversal
direction
DOWN
current / peak
16.5% / 18.5%
move_start
9.0%
reversal
+2.0pp
move size / hours
9.5pp / 78.0h
shape
spike
72h range
10.5%—18.5% (Δ8.0pp)
since peak
8.0h
Price rose 9.5pp from 9.0% to 18.5% over 78.0h (spike), then reversed. Now at 16.5%, down 2.0pp from peak, 8.0h after the peak.
news gathered
● executed
news retrieval (tomographic)
raw→filtered: 328 → 19
quality: HIGH
tokens: 7908
article_antithesis
direct
Iran's new draft proposal for peace with America: Demands ending war, removing sanctions, lifting naval blockade
article_thesis
relevant
Iran crisis disrupts Strait of Hormuz, insurance withdrawal impacts shipping
article_antithesis
direct
Iran's Draft Proposal for US Talks; Demands Ending War, Removing Sanctions, Lifting Naval Blockade | 🌎 LatestLY
article_antithesis
direct
Iran's Draft Proposal for US Talks: End War, Lift Sanctions
article_thesis
direct
Trump explodes after Iran refuses to discuss nuclear program in latest peace offer
article_antithesis
direct
Trump rejects Iranian draft seeking ceasefire and sanctions relief
article_precursor
direct
Le projet iranien de proposition pour des discussions avec les Etats-Unis exige la fin de la guerre, la levée des sanctions et du blocus naval
article_antithesis
direct
US-Iran War LIVE: UK, France To Host Defence Ministers' Meeting On Hormuz
article_thesis
relevant
Economic Collapse and Oil Looting Accelerate the Final Fall of the Mullahs' Regime Following the Death of Khamenei | Sada Elbalad
article_thesis
direct
Trump Rejects Iran's Response, Diplomatic Collapse Looms
article_thesis
relevant
Iran offers reply to US peace plan as Hormuz crisis simmers
article_antithesis
direct
Trump calls Iran nuclear deal response 'totally unacceptable'
article_thesis
relevant
Kurdish Leader: 'Master of the Deal' Trump Can Get Great Deal with Iran
article_thesis
relevant
Netanyahu: War with Iran 'accomplished a great deal, but it's not over'
AI verdict
● executed
Prompt-MR · misprice analysis
OVERPRICED
conviction: HIGH
opportunity: SMALL
action: NO
gpt-5 · prompt_2_misprice_v9.0_theta_v3 · 13771 tokens
Semantic Polarity: YES = a confirmed change in Iran’s top leadership by June 30; NO = leadership continuity through the deadline. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN Price move direction: UP (from 9% to 18%) Alignment: OPPOSITE Theta: DOWN — opposed Logical Divergence: Yes — price rose on no verified signals advancing a leadership change. There are no ★ DIRECT reports of Khamenei’s death, resignation, incapacitation, or a formal transfer of power; the lone health-related item about Mojtaba Khamenei clarifies rumors rather than indicating imminent succession, and the rest are unrelated US–Iran diplomacy headlines. A 9.5pp spike on process-only, indirect news is not justified; expect partial reversion from the 18% peak toward prior levels.
rule audit
● executed
audit_gate
✓
ALL