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● OPEN · BUY_NO
Iran leadership change by June 30?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 7b4c4f0e-90b4-42ad-908c-38796c5a233a
· signal: 9f20ecd5
· event: Iran leadership change by...?
entered
signal:
exited
still open
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
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size
$—
pnl $
—
pnl %
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decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: HIGH
opportunity: SMALL
broker: paper
Assessment: OVERPRICED Conviction: HIGH Size: SMALL Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES = a confirmed change in Iran’s top leadership by June 30; NO = leadership continuity through the deadline. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN Price move direction: UP (from 9% to 18%) Alignment: OPPOSITE Theta: DOWN — opposed Logical Divergence: Yes — price rose on
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 476 | 0.8400 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 |
re-evaluation history Phase 2 trigger detector + Stage 1 cheap filter + Stage 2 gpt-5 verdict · shows what news fired the trigger and how the LLM re-judged it
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate intensified military readiness and confirm the influence of Iran's leadership on war strategy, which could significantly impact negotiations and market perceptions.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/HIGH new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (10 items · score 9.58 )
- 2026-05-08T11:34 [Belfast News Lette] Máiría Cahill says Sinn Féin backing for Assembly motion 'tacit admission she told the truth' about IRA claims
- 2026-05-09T01:44 [World Socialist] United flight attendants vote on second contract, as Spirit collapse signals industry-wide crisis
- 2026-05-09T03:01 [Anadolu Ajansı] US intelligence sees Iran's new supreme leader influencing war strategy: Report
- 2026-05-09T14:03 [Breaking News.ie] Starmer names former prime minister Gordon Brown as adviser | BreakingNews
- 2026-05-09T18:11 [News24] 'Mojtaba Khamenei active behind the scenes': US intel report confirms Iran Supreme Leader alive, shaping war strategy from...; what this means for US-Iran negotiations? - News24 World
- 2026-05-09T19:27 [New York Post] Iran's disfigured, 'probably gay,' supreme leader directing negotiations with US: intelligence
- 2026-05-10T03:41 [i24NEWS English] US Rubio, Witkoff meet with Qatari PM in Miami amid push for Iran war ceasefire deal
- 2026-05-10T06:06 [BERNAMA] Iran Envoy: Agreement Possible If US Acts Rationally
- 2026-05-10T07:14 [ABNA English] Iran's Vatican Envoy: Pope-Rubio Meeting Aims to Contain Deepening U.S.-Vatican Rift
- 2026-05-10T12:23 [EconoTimes] Iran Military Readiness Intensifies After Meeting With Mojtaba Khamenei - EconoTimes
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the current understanding of the situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the current understanding of the situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The agreement to hold nuclear talks within 30 days represents a significant shift in diplomatic engagement that could impact market expectations regarding Iran's leadership stability and potential regime change.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/HIGH new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (2 items · score 0.89 )
- 2026-05-11T10:09 [The New Arab] Exclusive: Iran agrees to hold nuclear talks within 30 days
- 2026-05-11T11:37 [english] Breaking: Gulf tensions rise as Iran-US standoff deepens over Strait of Hormuz crisis
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The release of Narges Mohammadi does not significantly alter the geopolitical landscape or the likelihood of a leadership change in Iran.
evidence news (1 items · score 0.35 )
- 2026-05-11T14:12 [Greater Kashmir] Iran releases Nobel Laureate Narges Mohammadi on bail
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the current understanding of the situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines focus on the UK Labour Party's internal issues, which do not impact the Iran leadership change market.
evidence news (4 items · score 0.76 )
- 2026-05-11T16:56 [Chronicle Live] Ousted Labour councillor hits out at Starmer over local election collapse
- 2026-05-11T17:21 [Middle East Eye] After electoral collapse, UK Labour risks political oblivion
- 2026-05-11T17:54 [P.M. News] UK Labour crisis deepens as MPs demand Starmer resignation
- 2026-05-11T17:59 [Daily Star] Keir Starmer in crisis as first government members resign and demand he quits
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the current understanding of the situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the current understanding of the situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The mention of a 'timeframe' for the return of blocked funds indicates a potential shift in negotiations that could impact the likelihood of a leadership change.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/HIGH new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (1 items · score 0.50 )
- 2026-05-11T17:21 [NDTV Profit] Iran Sets 'Timeframe' For Return Of Blocked Funds Amid Fragile Truce Talks
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the current understanding of the situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the current understanding of the situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the current understanding of the situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the current understanding of the situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the current understanding of the situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the current understanding of the situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the current understanding of the situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and positions without introducing new information that would change the outlook on Iran's leadership change.
evidence news (2 items · score 0.75 )
- 2026-05-12T09:35 [Diaspora Digital M] Trump & Netanyahu: Iran War 'Not Over' Until Enriched Uranium Removed - Diaspora Digital Media (DDM News) - Nigeria Breaking News, Africa and World News and Updates
- 2026-05-12T10:14 [PressTV] US envoy admits Israel secretly sent Iron Dome to UAE during war on Iran
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headline about Cuba sanctions does not directly relate to the Iran leadership change or the ongoing US-Iran negotiations.
evidence news (1 items · score 0.36 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-11T14:56 [Yahoo] Rubio's New Cuba Sanctions Deepen Energy Crisis And Raise Fears Of Regional Instability
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines focus on UK political turmoil and do not provide any new information regarding Iran's leadership or the situation in the Middle East.
evidence news (10 items · score 2.45 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-11T21:06 [City AM] Starmer speech fails to calm Labour party unrest as PM battles on - City AM
- 2026-05-12T01:46 [AOL.com] Cabinet ministers ‘may well’ tell Starmer to quit at Tuesday meeting, health minister says - AOL.com
- 2026-05-12T10:17 [Diaspora Digital M] Calls for Keir Starmer's Resignation Grow Amid UK Political Turmoil - Diaspora Digital Media (DDM News) - Nigeria Breaking News, Africa and World News and Updates
- 2026-05-12T10:58 [Sahara Reporters] UK Prime Minister Starmer Refuses To Quit As Cabinet Revolt Deepens, Over 80 MPs Demand Exit
- 2026-05-12T11:29 [Economic Times] How Keir Starmer could be replaced as UK prime minister after discontent rises in his own party
- 2026-05-12T11:32 [SABC News - Breaki] Starmer defies calls to quit, says he's getting on with governing - SABC News - Breaking news, special reports, world, business, sport coverage of all South African current events. Africa's news leader.
- 2026-05-12T11:51 [NDTV Profit] What Happens If UK PM Keir Starmer Resigns? Inside Labour's High-Stakes Succession Battle
- 2026-05-12T12:31 [MyJoyOnline.com] UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer grapples with leadership crisis amid growing calls to quit - MyJoyOnline
- 2026-05-12T12:37 [P.M. News] Starmer crisis deepens as Jess Phillips dramatically resigns
- 2026-05-12T12:39 [Breaking News.ie] Jess Phillips quits UK government adding pressure on Keir Starmer to quit | BreakingNews
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines focus on UK political turmoil and do not relate to the Iran leadership change or its implications.
evidence news (10 items · score 3.05 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-11T21:06 [City AM] Starmer speech fails to calm Labour party unrest as PM battles on - City AM
- 2026-05-12T01:46 [AOL.com] Cabinet ministers ‘may well’ tell Starmer to quit at Tuesday meeting, health minister says - AOL.com
- 2026-05-12T10:17 [Diaspora Digital M] Calls for Keir Starmer's Resignation Grow Amid UK Political Turmoil - Diaspora Digital Media (DDM News) - Nigeria Breaking News, Africa and World News and Updates
- 2026-05-12T10:58 [Sahara Reporters] UK Prime Minister Starmer Refuses To Quit As Cabinet Revolt Deepens, Over 80 MPs Demand Exit
- 2026-05-12T11:29 [Economic Times] How Keir Starmer could be replaced as UK prime minister after discontent rises in his own party
- 2026-05-12T11:32 [SABC News - Breaki] Starmer defies calls to quit, says he's getting on with governing - SABC News - Breaking news, special reports, world, business, sport coverage of all South African current events. Africa's news leader.
- 2026-05-12T11:44 [The Canary] Equity leader calls for Starmer to resign and says union 'opposes' Reform
- 2026-05-12T11:51 [NDTV Profit] What Happens If UK PM Keir Starmer Resigns? Inside Labour's High-Stakes Succession Battle
- 2026-05-12T12:31 [MyJoyOnline.com] UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer grapples with leadership crisis amid growing calls to quit - MyJoyOnline
- 2026-05-12T12:37 [P.M. News] Starmer crisis deepens as Jess Phillips dramatically resigns
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines are unrelated to Iran and do not impact the existing information about the leadership change in Iran.
evidence news (2 items · score 0.53 )
- 2026-05-11T23:48 [AOL.com] Cabinet ministers ‘may well’ tell Starmer to quit at Tuesday meeting, health minister says - AOL.com
- 2026-05-12T13:40 [MercoPress] How a British prime minister is replaced: the keys to a possible Starmer succession
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines are focused on UK political events and do not pertain to Iran or its leadership situation.
evidence news (3 items · score 0.78 )
- 2026-05-10T08:16 [Crypto Briefing] Catherine West threatens leadership challenge amid Labour Party turmoil - Crypto Briefing
- 2026-05-12T11:51 [NDTV Profit] What Happens If UK PM Keir Starmer Resigns? Inside Labour's High-Stakes Succession Battle - NDTV Profit
- 2026-05-12T15:39 [Reclaim The Net] Jess Phillips Resigns, Pushes Phone Scanning Law in UK
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines focus on UK political events unrelated to Iran, providing no new information on the Iran leadership change.
evidence news (3 items · score 0.64 )
- 2026-05-12T15:50 [Breaking News.ie] Labour rift over Keir Starmer's fate deepens as three ministers quit | BreakingNews
- 2026-05-12T16:25 [EXPRESS] Sky News halts for breaking announcement - and it's disastrous for Starmer
- 2026-05-12T16:50 [Notiulti] Three ministers resign as Keir Starmer vows to resist widening Labour revolt - The Irish Times - Notiulti
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the current understanding of the situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the current understanding of the situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the current understanding of the situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the current understanding of the situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the current understanding of the situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the current understanding of the situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the current understanding of the situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the current understanding of the situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the current understanding of the situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the current understanding of the situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the current understanding of the situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines focus on UK political issues unrelated to Iran, providing no new information on the Iran leadership change.
evidence news (2 items · score 0.44 )
- 2026-05-12T19:05 [UKNIP] Donald Trump Criticises Keir Starmer Amid UK Labour Leadership Crisis
- 2026-05-13T08:35 [The Guardian] Starmer holds brief meeting with Streeting amid leadership crisis
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines focus on UK political developments and do not provide new information regarding Iran's leadership or the prediction market in question.
evidence news (10 items · score 2.40 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-11T20:35 [AOL.com] Cabinet ministers ‘may well’ tell Starmer to quit at Tuesday meeting, health minister says - AOL.com
- 2026-05-12T11:51 [NDTV Profit] What Happens If UK PM Keir Starmer Resigns? Inside Labour's High-Stakes Succession Battle - NDTV Profit
- 2026-05-12T13:21 [MercoPress] How a British prime minister is replaced: the keys to a possible Starmer succession - MercoPress
- 2026-05-13T06:43 [The Hans India] Keir Starmer Faces Leadership Crisis As Labour Revolt Deepens Ahead Of King's Speech
- 2026-05-13T08:42 [London Now] What's going on with Keir Starmer as pressure mounts to step down
- 2026-05-13T08:58 [HuffPost UK] Fleeting Streeting: Health Secretary's Showdown With PM Lasts Barely 15 Minutes
- 2026-05-13T09:09 [Adnkronos] UK, very brief meeting between Streeting and Starmer at Downing Street
- 2026-05-13T09:33 [The Guardian] Starmer holds 16-minute meeting with Streeting amid leadership crisis - The Guardian
- 2026-05-13T09:36 [ExBulletin] Keir Starmer's meeting with leadership rival Wes Streeting lasts just 16 minutes - The Irish Times - ExBulletin
- 2026-05-13T09:43 [SABC News - Breaki] UK health minister Streeting at Downing St for short meeting with PM - SABC News - Breaking news, special reports, world, business, sport coverage of all South African current events. Africa's news leader.
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines focus on UK political developments and do not provide new information regarding Iran's leadership or the prediction market in question.
evidence news (10 items · score 2.40 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-11T20:35 [AOL.com] Cabinet ministers ‘may well’ tell Starmer to quit at Tuesday meeting, health minister says - AOL.com
- 2026-05-12T11:51 [NDTV Profit] What Happens If UK PM Keir Starmer Resigns? Inside Labour's High-Stakes Succession Battle - NDTV Profit
- 2026-05-12T13:21 [MercoPress] How a British prime minister is replaced: the keys to a possible Starmer succession - MercoPress
- 2026-05-13T06:43 [The Hans India] Keir Starmer Faces Leadership Crisis As Labour Revolt Deepens Ahead Of King's Speech
- 2026-05-13T08:42 [London Now] What's going on with Keir Starmer as pressure mounts to step down
- 2026-05-13T08:58 [HuffPost UK] Fleeting Streeting: Health Secretary's Showdown With PM Lasts Barely 15 Minutes
- 2026-05-13T09:09 [Adnkronos] UK, very brief meeting between Streeting and Starmer at Downing Street
- 2026-05-13T09:33 [The Guardian] Starmer holds 16-minute meeting with Streeting amid leadership crisis - The Guardian
- 2026-05-13T09:36 [ExBulletin] Keir Starmer's meeting with leadership rival Wes Streeting lasts just 16 minutes - The Irish Times - ExBulletin
- 2026-05-13T09:43 [SABC News - Breaki] UK health minister Streeting at Downing St for short meeting with PM - SABC News - Breaking news, special reports, world, business, sport coverage of all South African current events. Africa's news leader.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the current understanding of the situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines focus on UK political turmoil and do not relate to Iran's leadership or the existing context of US-Iran relations.
evidence news (7 items · score 1.74 )
- 2026-05-12T13:21 [MercoPress] How a British prime minister is replaced: the keys to a possible Starmer succession - MercoPress
- 2026-05-13T10:39 [UKNIP] Wes Streeting Set to Resign Amid Labour Leadership Crisis
- 2026-05-13T11:12 [El-Balad.com] Victoria Starmer: Streeting could resign, launch challenge by Thursday
- 2026-05-13T11:38 [News9live] Revolving door at Downing Street: 5 UK PMs ousted in 10 years, is it Keir Starmer's turn now?
- 2026-05-13T12:55 [The Khaama Press N] Pressure Mounts on Starmer to Step Down as Labour Crisis Deepens - Khaama Press
- 2026-05-13T13:33 [News Directory 3] Wes Streeting's Leadership Challenge: Starmer Faces Resignation Threat Amid UK Political Turmoil - News Directory 3
- 2026-05-13T13:41 [CNA] King Charles unveils government agenda as UK PM Starmer faces leadership crisis
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the current understanding of the situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the current understanding of the situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the current understanding of the situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the current understanding of the situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the current understanding of the situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headline about China changing the spelling of Marco Rubio's name does not relate to Iran's leadership change or the ongoing US-Iran negotiations.
evidence news (1 items · score 0.22 )
- 2026-05-13T21:47 [New York Post] China changed spelling of Marco Rubio's name to avoid implementing sanctions ahead of Trump-Xi meeting
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the current understanding of the situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the current understanding of the situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the current understanding of the situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would change the outlook on Iran's leadership situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would change the outlook on Iran's leadership situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headline about UK health secretary resigning does not relate to Iran or its leadership change, thus it does not materially affect the information picture.
evidence news (1 items · score 0.25 )
- 2026-05-14T04:36 [Irish Independent] UK health secretary Wes Streeting poised to resign to force leadership election against Keir Starmer
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the current understanding of the situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the current understanding of the situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the current understanding of the situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing tensions and responses without introducing new developments or information that would alter the current understanding of the situation.
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.84, "size_usd": 400.0, "target_price": 0.99, "stop_price": 0.59, "broker": "paper"}