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Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? ↗
will-john-cornyn-win-the-2026-republican-primary
· Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner · category: Elections, March 3 Primaries, Parent For Derivative, Politics, Primaries, Republican Primary, Senate Primary, Texas Primary, Texas Senate, US Election, primary elections
· resolves
run_id: 72bfcf46-2000-4689-a016-e9422fe33e1c
· started
· status
completed
· plan_emitted
view position ↗
○ closed
· IDLE_NEVER_PROFITABLE
·
−$1.43
signal detected
● executed
detect_reversal
direction
UP
current / peak
43.5% / 41.5%
move_start
50.5%
reversal
+2.0pp
move size / hours
9.0pp / 0.5h
shape
steady
72h range
40.0%—50.5% (Δ10.5pp)
since peak
53.0h
Price fell 9.0pp from 50.5% to 41.5% over 0.5h (steady), then reversed. Now at 43.5%, up 2.0pp from trough, 53.0h after the trough.
news gathered
● executed
news retrieval (tomographic)
raw→filtered: 88 → 9
quality: HIGH
tokens: 5988
article_precursor
relevant
'It's a mess': With no Trump endorsement in Texas Senate race, Cornyn and Paxton are locked in an expensive brawl
article_thesis
relevant
Talarico leading Cornyn, Paxton among Texas voters in Senate race poll
article_thesis
relevant
Texas Democrat leading Republican competitors in Texas's US Senate race, poll shows
article_thesis
relevant
John Cornyn vs. Ken Paxton chances of beating James Talarico in Texas -- Polls
article_thesis
relevant
James Talarico is now leading both Republican Senate candidates in Texas, a state where no Democrat has won a statewide race since 1994 | Attack of the Fanboy
gnews_antithesis
relevant
GOP midterm prospects darken as Trump approval falls - Brookings
gnews_thesis
relevant
Texas Democrat Talarico leads senator Cornyn and AG Paxton in Senate race poll - The Guardian
gnews_indirect_evidence
relevant
Talarico leads both Cornyn, Paxton in new poll of Texas’ U.S. Senate race - Houston Public Media
gnews_indirect_evidence
relevant
Talarico leads both Cornyn, Paxton in new polls of Texas’ U.S. Senate race - The Texas Tribune
AI verdict
● executed
Prompt-MR · misprice analysis
UNDERPRICED
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: SMALL
action: YES
override: OMIT_STRONG_ASSESSMENT
gpt-5 · prompt_2_misprice_v8.5.4 · 12837 tokens
Semantic Polarity: YES = Cornyn wins the 2026 Texas Republican Primary; NO = he does not. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0); Self-check: no change. Theta direction: NEUTRAL Price move direction: DOWN (from 50% to 42%) Alignment: N/A Theta: NEUTRAL — not applicable No ★ DIRECT events moved the race toward resolution; headlines are context-only (general-election polls showing Talarico leading both GOP options, NYT noting the runoff date, and CNN noting no Trump endorsement yet), which do not determine who wins the GOP primary and thus do not justify a 9pp drop. With zero incremental D-signals against Cornyn, the move is a divergence-driven overreaction to context, so some reversion up is warranted.
rule audit
● executed
audit_gate
✓
ALL