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○ CLOSED · BUY_YES
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 35345b62-cb4d-49d4-9605-c33aadae844b
· signal: cb544703
· event: Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
IDLE NEVER PROFITABLE
resolves
prices (BUY_YES frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$-1.43
pnl %
-13.64%
decision context
direction: UP
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: SMALL
broker: paper
Assessment: UNDERPRICED Conviction: MEDIUM Size: SMALL Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES = Cornyn wins the 2026 Texas Republican Primary; NO = he does not. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0); Self-check: no change. Theta direction: NEUTRAL Price move direction: DOWN (from 50% to 42%) Alignment: N/A Theta: NEUTRAL — not applicable No ★ DIRECT events moved the race toward resolution; headlines are
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 24 | 0.4400 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 24 | 0.3800 | 0.3800 → 0.3800 (1 lvl) | IDLE_NEVER_PROFITABLE | $-1.43 |
re-evaluation history Phase 2 trigger detector + Stage 1 cheap filter + Stage 2 gpt-5 verdict · shows what news fired the trigger and how the LLM re-judged it
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event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_YES", "entry_price": 0.44, "size_usd": 10.48, "target_price": 0.495, "stop_price": 0.375, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.38, "yes_ask": 0.39, "yes_mid": 0.385, "yes_spread_pp": 1.0, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.38, "walk_top_size": 1441.65, "walk_filled_shares": 23.82, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.38, "walk_slippage_pp": -0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.38, "side_bid": 0.38, "side_mid": 0.385, "fill_price": 0.38, "fill_shares": 23.82, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 23.82, "target_price": 0.495, "stop_price": 0.375, "entry_price": 0.44, "original_size_shares": 23.81818181818182, "fill_pnl_pct": -13.64, "fill_pnl_usd": -1.4291, "pnl_pct_mid": -12.5, "pnl_pct_top": -13.64, "trigger_vs_level_pp": null, "mfe_drift_pp": -1.0, "current_drift_pp": -6.0, "hours_held": 140.44, "fill_id": "31713ec4-5294-4993-ae1f-105bed6b59ab"}