Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? ↗

Price fell 7.0pp from 37.5% to 30.5% over 7h (steady). Now at 30.5%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 37.5%, 72h range: 30.5%-41.5%]

Days to resolution: 33 days. Theta-bleed is active: the market requires a positive action (Trump announcing end of military operations against Iran) by a fixed deadline within 90 days, and the trend is DOWN, so absence of progress is bearish for YES. Step 1a: The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports NO—Trump is repeatedly and explicitly rejecting Iran's proposals to end the war, with multiple sources confirming he is "unlikely to accept" or "inclined to reject" the latest diplomatic overture. The trend is DOWN, implying YES is becoming less likely; these align. News momentum is plateauing but not fading: the same core event (Trump's rejection) is being reported by several outlets, with no new escalation or de-escalation actions—just confirmation of the U.S. position. After clustering, there is 1 distinct ★DIRECT event (Trump's rejection of Iran's proposal) from 3 articles, which is a concrete D8 de-escalation blocker for YES. There are no counter-signals supporting YES; all momentum is in the direction of NO. Momentum signals: trend=1 (D8), counter=0. Remaining space: 30.5pp (from 30.5% to 0%). Step 3 hard rule check: No news-trend conflict, not mixed, not a spike exhaustion, not at a boundary, and the D8 signal is a concrete action (not rhetoric), so conviction must be at least MEDIUM. Theta-bleed supports further downside as long as no new YES momentum emerges.