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○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 8886fe20-2251-4c85-bd4e-9167df0cd7a4
· signal: 2657e870
· event: Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
PHASE4 MFE GIVEBACK
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$-0.40
pnl %
-0.71%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: MEDIUM
broker: paper
MOM DOWN — anchor→trigger: 37.5% → 30.5% over 7h, cusum=-4.327. Days to resolution: 33 days. Theta-bleed is active: the market requires a positive action (Trump announcing end of military operations against Iran) by a fixed deadline within 90 days, and the trend is DOWN, so absence of progress is bearish for YES. Step 1a: The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 79 | 0.7000 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 79 | 0.6200 | 0.6200 → 0.6200 (1 lvl) | SL | $-6.32 |
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.7, "size_usd": 55.33, "target_price": 0.745, "stop_price": 0.64, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.06, "yes_ask": 0.94, "yes_mid": 0.5, "yes_spread_pp": 88.0, "walk_levels_used": 2, "walk_top_fill": 0.06, "walk_top_size": 16.67, "walk_filled_shares": 79.04, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.0284, "walk_slippage_pp": 3.16, "side_bid_top": 0.06, "side_bid": 0.0284, "side_mid": 0.5, "fill_price": 0.0284, "fill_shares": 79.04, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 79.04, "target_price": 0.745, "stop_price": 0.64, "entry_price": 0.7, "original_size_shares": 79.04285714285714, "fill_pnl_pct": -95.94, "fill_pnl_usd": -53.0852, "pnl_pct_mid": -28.57, "pnl_pct_top": -91.43, "trigger_vs_level_pp": -61.16, "fill_id": "f1f5c91b-9386-4d0b-a65b-2697894d4ece"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.37, "yes_ask": 0.38, "yes_mid": 0.375, "yes_spread_pp": 1.0, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.62, "walk_top_size": 350.0, "walk_filled_shares": 79.04, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.62, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.62, "side_bid": 0.62, "side_mid": 0.625, "fill_price": 0.62, "fill_shares": 79.04, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 79.04, "target_price": 0.745, "stop_price": 0.64, "entry_price": 0.7, "original_size_shares": 79.04285714285714, "fill_pnl_pct": -11.43, "fill_pnl_usd": -6.3234, "pnl_pct_mid": -10.71, "pnl_pct_top": -11.43, "trigger_vs_level_pp": -2.0, "fill_id": "b09d5f8b-cf6a-46d9-870a-0b7867bfc388"}