Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? ↗

Price fell 19.2pp from 40.5% to 21.3% over 8.0h (spike), then reversed. Now at 27.0%, up 5.6pp from trough, 0.5h after the trough.

Semantic Polarity: YES = no qualifying US–Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026; NO = at least one qualifying meeting occurs. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=2 (US rejection of Iran’s proposal; reports that negotiations remain stalled), D=1 (Iran submits a new proposal via Pakistan mediation), L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=2, D=1 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: UP
Price move direction: DOWN (from 40% to 21%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: UP — opposed
The drop was driven by process-only news (a proposal via a mediator) that does not satisfy the settlement criterion of a qualifying bilateral meeting, while a key counter-signal is Trump rejecting the proposal and vowing to keep the blockade, which reduces meeting odds; that mix cannot justify a 19pp spike. With no confirmation of a scheduled/held US–Iran meeting and at least one blocker, this looks like an emotional overshoot that should mean-revert upward.