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○ CLOSED · BUY_YES
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: ea1a3d65-499f-4018-9440-39d730a7673b
· signal: 4125f30c
· event: Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● MFE GIVEBACK
resolves
prices (BUY_YES frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$-0.53
pnl %
-2.61%
decision context
direction: UP
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: LARGE
broker: paper
Assessment: UNDERPRICED Conviction: MEDIUM Size: LARGE Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES = no qualifying US–Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026; NO = at least one qualifying meeting occurs. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=2 (US rejection of Iran’s proposal; reports that negotiations remain stalled), D=1 (Iran submits a new proposal via Pakistan mediation), L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=2, D=1 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 74 | 0.2760 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 74 | 0.2688 | 0.2690 → 0.2688 (2 lvl) | MFE_GIVEBACK | $-0.53 |
re-evaluation history Phase 2 trigger detector + Stage 1 cheap filter + Stage 2 gpt-5 verdict · shows what news fired the trigger and how the LLM re-judged it
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Iran's ongoing proposals for negotiations with the US, which were already known and do not introduce new information.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Iran's ongoing proposals for negotiations with the US, consistent with previously known information.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Iran's ongoing proposals for negotiations with the US without introducing new developments or changes in context.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Iran's ongoing proposals for negotiations with the US, consistent with previously known information.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Iran's ongoing proposals for negotiations with the US without introducing new developments or changes in context.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Iran's ongoing proposals for negotiations with the US, consistent with previously known information.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Iran's ongoing proposals for negotiations with the US without introducing new information or developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Iran's ongoing proposals for negotiations with the US without introducing new information or developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Iran's ongoing proposals for negotiations with the US without introducing new information or developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Iran's ongoing proposals for negotiations with the US without introducing new information or developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Iran's ongoing proposals for negotiations with the US, consistent with previously known information.
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_YES", "entry_price": 0.276, "size_usd": 20.34, "target_price": 0.3732, "stop_price": 0.1728, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.269, "yes_ask": 0.283, "yes_mid": 0.276, "yes_spread_pp": 1.4, "walk_levels_used": 2, "walk_top_fill": 0.269, "walk_top_size": 60.0, "walk_filled_shares": 73.7, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.2688, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.02, "side_bid_top": 0.269, "side_bid": 0.2688, "side_mid": 0.276, "fill_price": 0.2688, "fill_shares": 73.7, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 73.7, "target_price": 0.3732, "stop_price": 0.1728, "entry_price": 0.276, "original_size_shares": 73.69565217391303, "fill_pnl_pct": -2.61, "fill_pnl_usd": -0.5306, "pnl_pct_mid": 0.0, "pnl_pct_top": -2.54, "trigger_vs_level_pp": -0.41, "mfe_drift_pp": 1.69, "current_drift_pp": -0.72, "hours_held": 15.46, "fill_id": "bd6f82f1-9679-4a2d-ba5f-8af396d6cc24"}