Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? ↗

Price fell 3.0pp from 29.5% to 26.5% over 1h (spike). Now at 26.5%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 29.5%, 72h range: 26.5%-41.0%]

Days to resolution: 21 days. Theta-bleed is active: the market requires a positive action (confirmation of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair by May 15), the deadline is within 90 days, and the trend is DOWN, so time decay is pushing the probability lower in the absence of positive news. Step 1a: There are zero ★DIRECT events—no concrete confirmation, withdrawal, or new procedural developments regarding Warsh's confirmation. The trend is DOWN, implying NO is becoming more likely, and the news aligns: there is no evidence of progress toward confirmation. The news flow is plateauing—multiple articles recap Warsh's recent Senate hearing, discuss his policy views, and highlight political obstacles, but all are CONTEXT, not process signals. No new actors, no escalation, and no fresh procedural movement. Signal count: Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. Remaining space: 21.5pp (from 26.5% to 5%). The move is a modest spike (3pp), but with no direct news catalyst, it is likely driven by time decay (theta-bleed) rather than information. Step 3 hard rule check: No conflict, no balanced mixed, no spike exhaustion, and theta-bleed supports continuation in the absence of news. All rules permit CONTINUE.