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○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 98f7d92b-89b0-4f97-9f60-447a6af75c48
· signal: e8ad02ce
· event: Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
PHASE4 MFE GIVEBACK
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$-0.27
pnl %
-1.35%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: MEDIUM
broker: paper
MOM DOWN — anchor→trigger: 29.5% → 26.5% over 1h, cusum=-4.093. Days to resolution: 21 days. Theta-bleed is active: the market requires a positive action (confirmation of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair by May 15), the deadline is within 90 days, and the trend is DOWN, so time decay is pushing the probability lower in the absence of positive news. Step 1a: There are ze
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.74, "size_usd": 20.0, "target_price": 0.785, "stop_price": 0.68, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_midpoint": 0.455, "side_price": 0.545, "exit_price": 0.68, "target_price": 0.785, "stop_price": 0.68, "entry_price": 0.74, "size_shares": 27.027027027027028, "pnl_pct": -8.11, "pnl_usd": -1.6216, "observed_slippage_pp": -13.5}