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Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? ↗
will-keiko-fujimori-win-the-2026-peruvian-presidential-election
· Peru Presidential Election Winner · category: Elections, Global Elections, Main Election, Peru, Peru Election, Politics, Rewards 200, 4.5, 50, World Elections
· resolves
run_id: 8db9e9e7-f982-4846-a39b-1185a4cd0d4a
· started
· status
completed
· plan_emitted
view position ↗
○ closed
· VERDICT_FLIP
·
+$0.62
signal detected
● executed
detect_reversal
direction
UP
current / peak
63.5% / 61.5%
move_start
68.5%
reversal
+2.0pp
move size / hours
7.0pp / 28.5h
shape
spike
72h range
48.5%—69.5% (Δ21.0pp)
since peak
4.5h
Price fell 7.0pp from 68.5% to 61.5% over 28.5h (spike), then reversed. Now at 63.5%, up 2.0pp from trough, 4.5h after the trough. [Prior context: 24h ago: 67.5%, 72h range: 48.5%-69.5%]
news gathered
● executed
news retrieval (tomographic)
raw→filtered: 62 → 1
quality: HIGH
tokens: 4453
AI verdict
● executed
Prompt-MR · misprice analysis
UNDERPRICED
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: SMALL
action: YES
override: OMIT_STRONG_ASSESSMENT
gpt-5 · prompt_2_misprice_v8.5.4 · 11706 tokens
Semantic Polarity: YES = Keiko Fujimori wins the 2026 presidential election; NO = she does not. Trend is DOWN, pricing in NO-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: NEUTRAL Price move direction: DOWN (from 68% to 62%) Alignment: N/A Theta: NEUTRAL — no deadline. Logical Divergence exists (price fell without any DIRECT bearish signals), not Strong Divergence. The only news is CONTEXT about the electoral chief’s resignation amid delayed April 12 results, which does not speak to Keiko’s polling, eligibility, endorsements, or official results and thus fails to meet settlement-relevant criteria. With no ★ DIRECT catalysts, a 7pp drop over ~28h looks like an overreaction within a broader multi-wave range; partial mean reversion is warranted.
rule audit
● executed
audit_gate
✓
ALL