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○ CLOSED · BUY_YES
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 9d995b63-bc5c-4c3c-954a-063e7a242c43
· signal: 0051fc9e
· event: Peru Presidential Election Winner
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
PHASE4 MFE GIVEBACK
resolves
prices (BUY_YES frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$+0.31
pnl %
+0.78%
decision context
direction: UP
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: SMALL
broker: paper
Assessment: UNDERPRICED Conviction: MEDIUM Size: SMALL Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES = Keiko Fujimori wins the 2026 presidential election; NO = she does not. Trend is DOWN, pricing in NO-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: NEUTRAL Price move direction: DOWN (from 68% to 62%) Alignment: N/A Theta: NEUTRAL — no deadline. Logical Divergence exists (price fell without any DIRECT bearish s
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLOSE | 62 | 0.6500 | 0.6500 → 0.6500 (1 lvl) | VERDICT_FLIP | $+0.62 |
re-evaluation history Phase 2 trigger detector + Stage 1 cheap filter + Stage 2 gpt-5 verdict · shows what news fired the trigger and how the LLM re-judged it
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The resignation of the electoral chief and the ongoing election crisis could significantly impact voter sentiment and election outcomes, affecting Fujimori's chances.
stage2_error:retrieval_failed:unknown news strategy: mr
TIME_BACKSTOP
→ EXITED
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The resignation of the electoral chief and the ongoing election crisis could significantly impact the election outcome and voter sentiment.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
OMIT
/ LOW
· UNDERPRICED
flipped & exited: fill=0.65 shares=62.5 pnl=$0.625
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_YES", "entry_price": 0.64, "size_usd": 40.0, "target_price": 0.673, "stop_price": 0.58, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_PARTIAL
{"yes_bid": 0.01, "yes_ask": 0.99, "yes_mid": 0.5, "yes_spread_pp": 98.0, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.01, "walk_top_size": 25.0, "walk_filled_shares": 25.0, "walk_unfilled_shares": 37.5, "walk_avg_fill": 0.01, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.01, "side_bid": 0.01, "side_mid": 0.5, "fill_price": 0.01, "fill_shares": 25.0, "is_partial": true, "remaining_before": 62.5, "target_price": 0.673, "stop_price": 0.58, "entry_price": 0.64, "original_size_shares": 62.5, "fill_pnl_pct": -98.44, "fill_pnl_usd": -15.75, "pnl_pct_mid": -21.88, "pnl_pct_top": -98.44, "trigger_vs_level_pp": -57.0, "fill_id": "2f85abff-d8ba-46eb-b60d-d2c3600f4034"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.65, "yes_ask": 0.66, "yes_mid": 0.655, "yes_spread_pp": 1.0, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.65, "walk_top_size": 220648.3, "walk_filled_shares": 62.5, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.65, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.65, "side_bid": 0.65, "side_mid": 0.655, "fill_price": 0.65, "fill_shares": 62.5, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 62.5, "force_exit_reason": "VERDICT_FLIP", "force_exit_notes": "reeval[90cc0b1e] entry=YES/MEDIUM new=OMIT/LOW", "entry_price": 0.64, "original_size_shares": 62.5, "fill_id": "63cbb6c0-c17e-4b38-97ec-98f5e3ba964a"}