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mr

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? ↗

will-the-upper-bound-of-the-target-federal-funds-rate-be-4pt0-at-the-end-of-2026-386 · What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? · category: Economic Policy, Fed, Fed Chair, Fed Rates, Jerome Powell, Politics, Trump · resolves
run_id: 8f4f416a-6d61-4ea0-b504-1b8a80771303 · started · status completed · plan_emitted
view position ↗ ○ closed · VERDICT_FLIP · −$0.10
signal detected

detect_reversal

● executed
direction
DOWN
current / peak
15.6% / 17.9%
move_start
9.2%
reversal
+2.4pp
move size / hours
8.8pp / 52.5h
shape
spike
72h range
8.8%—17.9% (Δ9.1pp)
since peak
0.5h

Price rose 8.8pp from 9.2% to 17.9% over 52.5h (spike), then reversed. Now at 15.6%, down 2.4pp from peak, 0.5h after the peak.

news gathered

news retrieval (tomographic)

● executed
raw→filtered: 321 → 80 quality: HIGH tokens: 32510
article_thesis noise
MARCHÉS BOURSIERS AMÉRICAINS-Wall Street recule sous le poids d'une inflation galopante et des tensions avec l'Iran
article_precursor relevant
L'Europe finit en baisse avec la résurgence de l'inflation aux USA et les tensions géopolitiques
article_thesis noise
Gas pumps up LA-Orange County inflation to 23-month high
article_precursor relevant
Inflation bleibt klebrig: Die Wall Street bekommt jetzt ein Problem
article_precursor relevant
USA: Iran-Krieg treibt Inflationsrate auf 3,8 Prozent
article_thesis noise
US inflation as oil disruptions impact Fed rate cut outlook
article_thesis noise
US Inflation Jumps to 3.8% as Energy Costs Surge from Iran War
article_precursor relevant
L'inflation américaine plus forte que prévu, des analystes s'interrogent pour la Fed
article_precursor relevant
Inflation Data Suggest More Consumer Pain Ahead
article_antithesis noise
Bitcoin slips as hotter U.S. inflation dims rate‑cut hopes
article_precursor relevant
High inflation is pushing yields to 5% on Treasury bonds
article_precursor relevant
Stock market today: Nasdaq, S&P 500, Dow fall as chip stocks drop, Wall Street weighs CPI inflation print
article_precursor relevant
Öl-Schock: Iran-Krieg treibt US-Inflation auf höchsten Stand seit drei Jahren
article_thesis noise
The April Jobs Report and CPI Reading Just Hit Consumers With a Double Whammy. Will the Fed Have to Rethink Its Position Regarding Interest Rates? | The Motley Fool
article_precursor relevant
Alors que l'inflation accélère aux Etats-Unis, c'est la " déflation " pour le Cac 40, qui bascule sous les 8.000 points
AI verdict

Prompt-MR · misprice analysis

● executed
OVERPRICED conviction: MEDIUM opportunity: SMALL action: NO override: OMIT_STRONG_ASSESSMENT
gpt-5 · prompt_2_misprice_v9.0_theta_v4 · 20317 tokens 
Semantic Polarity: YES = Fed’s target rate upper bound equals 4.0% at end-2026; NO = any other upper bound. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=2, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=1 (priced-in: E=0, D=1). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 9% to 18%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
Logical Divergence: Yes — price rose while the only concrete development (April CPI at 3.8% YoY with firm core, plus markets/banks pushing out cuts) makes 4.0% by end-2026 less likely. No ★ DIRECT resolution-tier action (e.g., a formal Fed path or explicit guidance to target 4.0% by that date) occurred; the CPI surprise instead bolsters “higher for longer,” which fails to support the YES criterion. Given process-only bearish-for-YES news, the 8.8pp UP move is not justified and should mean-revert lower.
rule audit

audit_gate

● executed
✓
ALL