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○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 3797db44-dfb5-4cdb-8aa2-f850fc05ceaf
· signal: 553c8048
· event: What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● VERDICT FLIP
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$-0.10
pnl %
-3.88%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: SMALL
broker: paper
Assessment: OVERPRICED Conviction: MEDIUM Size: SMALL Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES = Fed’s target rate upper bound equals 4.0% at end-2026; NO = any other upper bound. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=2, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=1 (priced-in: E=0, D=1). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN Price move direction: UP (from 9% to 18%) Alignment: OPPOSITE Theta: DOWN — opposed Logical Divergence: Yes — price rose while the only concrete
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 3 | 0.8500 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 3 | 0.8170 | 0.8170 → 0.8170 (1 lvl) | VERDICT_FLIP | $-0.10 |
re-evaluation history Phase 2 trigger detector + Stage 1 cheap filter + Stage 2 gpt-5 verdict · shows what news fired the trigger and how the LLM re-judged it
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines highlight a significant rise in inflation to a three-year high and suggest a more prolonged concern for the Fed, which could impact interest rate expectations.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (10 items · score 4.76 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-10T19:23 [International Busi] 'Hands-On Mum': Melania Trump's Parenting Decision About Raising Barron Without Nannies Revisited
- 2026-05-11 [?] Gold falls on oil-driven inflation worries as US-Iran peace talks falter
- 2026-05-11T04:28 [Economic Times] US Stock Market: US market enters a critical week with inflation and Iran tensions in focus
- 2026-05-11T08:40 [Profit by Pakistan] Gold falls on oil-driven inflation worries as US-Iran peace talks falter - Profit by Pakistan Today
- 2026-05-11T09:17 [Market Screener] Gold falls on oil-driven inflation fears as Trump rejects Iran peace proposal
- 2026-05-12T09:11 [U.S. News & World ] Inflation Hits 3.8%, Highest Level Since 2023, as Energy Costs Surge
- 2026-05-12T12:47 [EconoTimes] Inflation Heatwave: April CPI Surpasses Forecasts as Energy Shocks Bite
- 2026-05-12T12:48 [Bloomberg Business] US Treasuries Hold Losses as Rising Gas Costs Fuel Inflation
- 2026-05-12T13:04 [Axios] Inflation hits three-year high in April as Iran war impacts consumer prices
- 2026-05-12T14:18 [Yahoo! Finance] Hot CPI report likely to put Fed on guard for longer-lasting inflation
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines highlight a significant rise in inflation to a three-year high and suggest a more urgent response from the Fed, which could impact the federal funds rate outlook.
stage2_throttled_E:within_2.0h_AND_trigger_CUMULATIVE_eligible|trigger=CUMULATIVE|last=NO/MEDIUM|age=0.271h
evidence news (10 items · score 4.76 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-10T19:23 [International Busi] 'Hands-On Mum': Melania Trump's Parenting Decision About Raising Barron Without Nannies Revisited
- 2026-05-11 [?] Gold falls on oil-driven inflation worries as US-Iran peace talks falter
- 2026-05-11T04:28 [Economic Times] US Stock Market: US market enters a critical week with inflation and Iran tensions in focus
- 2026-05-11T08:40 [Profit by Pakistan] Gold falls on oil-driven inflation worries as US-Iran peace talks falter - Profit by Pakistan Today
- 2026-05-11T09:17 [Market Screener] Gold falls on oil-driven inflation fears as Trump rejects Iran peace proposal
- 2026-05-12T09:11 [U.S. News & World ] Inflation Hits 3.8%, Highest Level Since 2023, as Energy Costs Surge
- 2026-05-12T12:47 [EconoTimes] Inflation Heatwave: April CPI Surpasses Forecasts as Energy Shocks Bite
- 2026-05-12T12:48 [Bloomberg Business] US Treasuries Hold Losses as Rising Gas Costs Fuel Inflation
- 2026-05-12T13:04 [Axios] Inflation hits three-year high in April as Iran war impacts consumer prices
- 2026-05-12T14:18 [Yahoo! Finance] Hot CPI report likely to put Fed on guard for longer-lasting inflation
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines emphasize a significant rise in inflation due to the Iran conflict, which could impact Federal Reserve policy and the target federal funds rate.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines emphasize a significant rise in inflation due to the Iran conflict, which could impact Federal Reserve policy and the target federal funds rate.
stage2_error:analyzer_failed:Request timed out.
TIME_BACKSTOP
→ EXITED
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines emphasize a significant rise in inflation due to the Iran conflict, which could impact Federal Reserve policy and the target federal funds rate.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
OMIT
/ MEDIUM
· FAIR
flipped & exited: fill=0.817 shares=3.035294117647059 pnl=$-0.1002
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.85, "size_usd": 2.58, "target_price": 0.99, "stop_price": 0.6, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.161, "yes_ask": 0.183, "yes_mid": 0.172, "yes_spread_pp": 2.2, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.817, "walk_top_size": 70.0, "walk_filled_shares": 3.04, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.817, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.817, "side_bid": 0.817, "side_mid": 0.828, "fill_price": 0.817, "fill_shares": 3.04, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 3.04, "force_exit_reason": "VERDICT_FLIP", "force_exit_notes": "reeval[0a353ded] entry=NO/MEDIUM new=OMIT/MEDIUM", "entry_price": 0.85, "original_size_shares": 3.035294117647059, "fill_id": "a6515a32-b3c7-47a6-99ad-ca26f814250b"}