US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? ↗

Price rose 6.9pp from 37.6% to 44.5% over 13.0h (spike), then reversed. Now at 41.5%, down 3.0pp from peak, 0.5h after the peak. [Prior context: 24h ago: 45.0%, 72h range: 36.5%-49.5%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = a US–Iran diplomatic meeting is confirmed/held by May 31, 2026; NO = no such meeting is confirmed/held by then. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=2 (new Iranian proposal via Pakistan/14-point plan; Oman-led mediation incl. Omani/Turkish FM coordination), D=3 (Trump signaling likely rejection/“not satisfied”; Iranian ultimatum/preconditions; Iranian envoy blaming US sincerity), L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=2, D=3 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 38% to 44%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
Price rose while net fresh signals slightly reduce the odds of a meeting, and critically no meeting was scheduled/confirmed; proposals and mediation are process-only, whereas Trump’s likely rejection and Iran’s ultimatum/preconditions are direct blockers under the settlement criterion of “a meeting occurs/confirmed.” Given mixed-to-bearish momentum and absence of a concrete scheduling step, the 6.9pp spike looks partially unjustified and is already retracing; expect some mean reversion.