← all positions
○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 6c6ba1f4-2342-4469-80cc-99175211c516
· signal: 7e6bf101
· event: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● VERDICT FLIP
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$+8.47
pnl %
+3.39%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: SMALL
broker: paper
Assessment: OVERPRICED Conviction: MEDIUM Size: SMALL Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES = a US–Iran diplomatic meeting is confirmed/held by May 31, 2026; NO = no such meeting is confirmed/held by then. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=2 (new Iranian proposal via Pakistan/14-point plan; Oman-led mediation incl. Omani/Turkish FM coordination), D=3 (Trump signaling likely rejection/“not satisfied”; Iranian ultimatum/preconditions; Iranian envoy blaming US sincerity), L=0 (R=
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 424 | 0.5900 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 424 | 0.6100 | 0.6100 → 0.6100 (1 lvl) | VERDICT_FLIP | $+8.47 |
re-evaluation history Phase 2 trigger detector + Stage 1 cheap filter + Stage 2 gpt-5 verdict · shows what news fired the trigger and how the LLM re-judged it
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: New headlines indicate a shift in Iran's stance and potential escalation, which could significantly impact diplomatic meeting prospects.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
→ EXITED
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: New developments in Iran's proposals and the U.S. response could significantly alter the diplomatic landscape and trading outlook.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
OMIT
/ MEDIUM
· FAIR
flipped & exited: fill=0.61 shares=423.7288135593221 pnl=$8.4746
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.59, "size_usd": 250.0, "target_price": 0.614, "stop_price": 0.5524, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.38, "yes_ask": 0.39, "yes_mid": 0.385, "yes_spread_pp": 1.0, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.61, "walk_top_size": 38148.04, "walk_filled_shares": 423.73, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.61, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.61, "side_bid": 0.61, "side_mid": 0.615, "fill_price": 0.61, "fill_shares": 423.73, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 423.73, "force_exit_reason": "VERDICT_FLIP", "force_exit_notes": "reeval[28c61cd3] entry=NO/MEDIUM new=OMIT/MEDIUM", "entry_price": 0.59, "original_size_shares": 423.7288135593221, "fill_id": "d01bb201-3abf-409b-9ea5-671006631df0"}