Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? ↗

Price fell 7.5pp from 51.5% to 44.0% over 2h (spike). Now at 44.0%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 60.5%, 72h range: 44.0%-68.0%] [EVR: 72h range 24.0pp — extreme volatility regime]

Days to resolution: 31 days. Theta-bleed is active: the deadline is within 90 days, the market requires a positive action (Trump announcing the blockade is lifted), and the trend is DOWN, so in the absence of positive news, price should drift lower. Step 1a: The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports NO (i.e., the blockade is not being lifted), which aligns with the DOWN trend (NO becoming more likely). The news is INTENSIFYING: Trump is telling aides to prepare for an extended blockade (concrete process step), and multiple sources confirm ongoing discussions about Iran's proposal, but with Trump expressing dissatisfaction and no indication of movement toward lifting the blockade. After clustering, there is 1 distinct high-quality momentum signal for NO (Trump preparing for extended blockade), and 0 for YES (no evidence of progress toward lifting). There are no counter-signals suggesting imminent lifting; instead, the context supports continued blockade and even hardening of US posture. Momentum signals: trend=1, counter=0. Remaining space: 44pp. Step 3 hard rule check: No conflict, not mixed, not plateauing, not echo—there is a concrete process signal supporting the trend, so CONTINUE is justified at MEDIUM conviction per the conviction floor.