← all positions
○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 570de8b1-0327-49da-a6f3-0db596483863
· signal: c6eae025
· event: Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● TAKE PROFIT
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$+9.21
pnl %
+12.28%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: MEDIUM
broker: paper
MOM DOWN — anchor→trigger: 51.5% → 44.0% over 2h, cusum=-3.971. Days to resolution: 31 days. Theta-bleed is active: the deadline is within 90 days, the market requires a positive action (Trump announcing the blockade is lifted), and the trend is DOWN, so in the absence of positive news, price should drift lower. Step 1a: The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports N
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 132 | 0.5700 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 132 | 0.6400 | 0.6400 → 0.6400 (1 lvl) | TP | $+9.21 |
re-evaluation history Phase 2 trigger detector + Stage 1 cheap filter + Stage 2 gpt-5 verdict · shows what news fired the trigger and how the LLM re-judged it
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of the blockade situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of the blockade situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of the situation regarding the blockade and Iran's proposals.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative regarding the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of the blockade situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about the blockade or Trump's stance on Iran.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative regarding the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative regarding the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of the blockade situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of the blockade situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about the blockade or Trump's stance on Iran.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of the blockade situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about the blockade or Trump's stance on Iran.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about the blockade or Trump's stance on Iran.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of the blockade situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of the blockade situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative regarding the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.57, "size_usd": 75.0, "target_price": 0.63, "stop_price": 0.51, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.35, "yes_ask": 0.36, "yes_mid": 0.355, "yes_spread_pp": 1.0, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.64, "walk_top_size": 2700.77, "walk_filled_shares": 131.58, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.64, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.64, "side_bid": 0.64, "side_mid": 0.645, "fill_price": 0.64, "fill_shares": 131.58, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 131.58, "target_price": 0.63, "stop_price": 0.51, "entry_price": 0.57, "original_size_shares": 131.57894736842107, "fill_pnl_pct": 12.28, "fill_pnl_usd": 9.2105, "pnl_pct_mid": 13.16, "pnl_pct_top": 12.28, "trigger_vs_level_pp": 1.0, "mfe_drift_pp": 7.0, "current_drift_pp": 7.0, "hours_held": 69.19, "fill_id": "845e03a1-24d0-41ed-ab69-5513aa7e53c7"}