US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? ↗

Price rose 8.5pp from 57.5% to 66.0% over 10.0h (steady), then reversed. Now at 63.5%, down 2.5pp from peak, 1.5h after the peak. [Prior context: 24h ago: 59.5%, 72h range: 51.5%-69.0%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = a signed, permanent US–Iran peace deal by May 31, 2026; NO = no such signed deal by the deadline. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=3, D=3, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=3, D=3 (priced-in: E=0, D=1); cessation D-collapse: multiple “no talks/under blockade” headlines → collapsed D=3. Self-check: no change. 
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 58% to 66%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
No Strong Divergence; the move rose on mixed process signals, not on resolution-level progress. ★ DIRECT-ish positives are process-only (US delegation en route; Trump open to direct talks; Iran “considering” attending), while blockers remain material (Tehran says no plans/no decision and demands end of US blockade before talks; US maintains blockade and seized an Iranian ship), which do not satisfy the settlement criterion of a signed “permanent peace deal.” Given equal E and D and the presence of hard preconditions, an 8.5pp grind-up is partly an emotional overshoot rather than structural repricing; expect some mean reversion.