← all positions
○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 0d6d9000-1039-4b44-87de-6ee8db043032
· signal: cd2041a4
· event: US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● TAKE PROFIT
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$+4.43
pnl %
+11.08%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: SMALL
broker: paper
Assessment: OVERPRICED Conviction: MEDIUM Size: SMALL Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES = a signed, permanent US–Iran peace deal by May 31, 2026; NO = no such signed deal by the deadline. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=3, D=3, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=3, D=3 (priced-in: E=0, D=1); cessation D-collapse: multiple “no talks/under blockade” headlines → collapsed D=3. Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN Price move direction: UP (from 58% to 66%) Al
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.37, "size_usd": 40.0, "target_price": 0.411, "stop_price": 0.31, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_midpoint": 0.575, "side_price": 0.425, "exit_price": 0.411, "target_price": 0.411, "stop_price": 0.31, "entry_price": 0.37, "size_shares": 108.10810810810811, "pnl_pct": 11.08, "pnl_usd": 4.4324, "observed_slippage_pp": 1.4}