Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? ↗

Price fell 6.0pp from 17.5% to 11.5% over 6.0h (steady), then reversed. Now at 14.5%, up 3.0pp from trough, 0.5h after the trough. [Prior context: 24h ago: 34.5%, 72h range: 10.0%-38.5%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = Trump is physically in China on May 14; NO = trip doesn’t occur that day (delay/cancellation/slip to another date). Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=2, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=2, D=0 (priced-in: E=1, D=0). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: DOWN (from 18% to 12%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: DOWN — aligned
No Strong Divergence: price fell despite supportive E, but only ~2 distinct incremental confirmations (e.g., “Trump Confirms China Visit, Hails Upcoming Xi Meeting” and a senior official saying he will visit Beijing next week), versus zero reports of postponement/cancellation. These items directly reinforce a May 14–15 timetable and satisfy the kind of evidence that would raise YES odds, but with the deadline days away, a downward repricing from time decay is rational and dominates. Net: the 6pp drop is justified by theta more than by news flow, so mean reversion is not compelled by these headlines alone.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.