Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? ↗

Price rose 23.5pp from 33.5% to 57.0% over 4h (spike). Now at 57.0%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 32.5%, 72h range: 16.0%-62.0%] [EVR: 72h range 46.0pp — extreme volatility regime]

Days to resolution: 47 days. Not an election market — Theta: not active here (deadline within 90 days but trend is UP). YES-WORLD: the Knesset is formally dissolved by June 30; NO-WORLD: no formal dissolution by that date (introducing or scheduling a dissolution bill without passage is a near-miss). All 17 ★DIRECT items are EVIDENCE-tier via NEAR-MISS (coalition-filed dissolution bill, Knesset session planned, Haredi/UTJ and opposition signals), with zero ACTION-tier items (no dissolution vote/passage yet). The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports YES, and the UP spike aligns with that, with momentum INTENSIFYING given a coalition-backed filing and a vote expected next week and no material counter-signals. Fresh vs stale: trend_fresh=0, trend_stale=0, counter_fresh=0, counter_stale=0 (all fresh items are EVIDENCE-tier process steps). Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0; the coalition’s own bill materially advances the path to dissolution, so modest follow‑through is likely as scheduling firms up. Remaining space: 43pp; Hard-rule check: no NEWS-TREND conflict, not balanced mixed, spike appears news-driven (concrete filing), so Rule 5 does not force REVERSE.