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Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: a1d377dd-861f-4271-8665-35f20909e3c5
· signal: 51f88c06
· event: Israeli parliament dissolved by...?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● TAKE PROFIT
resolves
prices (BUY_YES frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$+0.80
pnl %
+12.50%
decision context
direction: UP
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: MEDIUM
broker: paper
MOM UP — anchor→trigger: 33.5% → 57.0% over 4h, cusum=3.866. Days to resolution: 47 days. Not an election market — Theta: not active here (deadline within 90 days but trend is UP). YES-WORLD: the Knesset is formally dissolved by June 30; NO-WORLD: no formal dissolution by that date (introducing or scheduling a dissolution bill without passage is a near-miss).
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 11 | 0.5600 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 11 | 0.6300 | 0.6300 → 0.6300 (1 lvl) | TP | $+0.80 |
re-evaluation history Phase 2 trigger detector + Stage 1 cheap filter + Stage 2 gpt-5 verdict · shows what news fired the trigger and how the LLM re-judged it
HARD_TIER1
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines focus on Iran and unrelated political issues, not on the dissolution of the Knesset or early elections in Israel.
evidence news (10 items · score 7.52 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-11T00:37 [mint] Iran suggests transfer of uranium stockpile to 3rd country in new peace offer, Trump says 'unacceptable' | Today News
- 2026-05-11T01:26 [ExBulletin] Netanyahu says Iran war 'not over'; Trump rejects his latest offer - ExBulletin
- 2026-05-11T04:28 [The Link News Pape] Did Netanyahu sell US an 'easy' Iran war, misread Hormuz risks? Israel PM says 'nobody had perfect foresight' - Link Newspaper
- 2026-05-11T10:46 [Arise News] Oil Jumps 40% As Netanyahu Warns Iran War Far From Over, Trump Rejects Tehran Proposal
- 2026-05-11T14:16 [La Voce di New Yor] Iran Talks Deadlocked as Trump Rejects Tehran's Counteroffer
- 2026-05-11T14:18 [ThePrint] Pakistan extends countrywide austerity drive after US, Iran fail to strike deal
- 2026-05-11T14:20 [The Jerusalem Post] Levin's refusal to meet with Supreme Court harms Israeli public, judiciary, AG argues
- 2026-05-11T14:30 [Al-Monitor] EU agrees long-stalled sanctions on Israeli settlers
- 2026-05-11T15:55 [Crypto Briefing] Trump rejects Iran proposal, dims hopes for nuclear deal by May 31
- 2026-05-11T17:21 [Middle East Eye] After electoral collapse, UK Labour risks political oblivion
HARD_TIER1
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines focus on Iran and unrelated political issues, not on the dissolution of the Knesset or early elections in Israel.
evidence news (10 items · score 7.52 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-11T00:37 [mint] Iran suggests transfer of uranium stockpile to 3rd country in new peace offer, Trump says 'unacceptable' | Today News
- 2026-05-11T01:26 [ExBulletin] Netanyahu says Iran war 'not over'; Trump rejects his latest offer - ExBulletin
- 2026-05-11T04:28 [The Link News Pape] Did Netanyahu sell US an 'easy' Iran war, misread Hormuz risks? Israel PM says 'nobody had perfect foresight' - Link Newspaper
- 2026-05-11T10:46 [Arise News] Oil Jumps 40% As Netanyahu Warns Iran War Far From Over, Trump Rejects Tehran Proposal
- 2026-05-11T14:16 [La Voce di New Yor] Iran Talks Deadlocked as Trump Rejects Tehran's Counteroffer
- 2026-05-11T14:18 [ThePrint] Pakistan extends countrywide austerity drive after US, Iran fail to strike deal
- 2026-05-11T14:20 [The Jerusalem Post] Levin's refusal to meet with Supreme Court harms Israeli public, judiciary, AG argues
- 2026-05-11T14:30 [Al-Monitor] EU agrees long-stalled sanctions on Israeli settlers
- 2026-05-11T15:55 [Crypto Briefing] Trump rejects Iran proposal, dims hopes for nuclear deal by May 31
- 2026-05-11T17:21 [Middle East Eye] After electoral collapse, UK Labour risks political oblivion
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_YES", "entry_price": 0.56, "size_usd": 6.36, "target_price": 0.63, "stop_price": 0.466, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.63, "yes_ask": 0.65, "yes_mid": 0.64, "yes_spread_pp": 2.0, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.63, "walk_top_size": 233.37, "walk_filled_shares": 11.36, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.63, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.63, "side_bid": 0.63, "side_mid": 0.64, "fill_price": 0.63, "fill_shares": 11.36, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 11.36, "target_price": 0.63, "stop_price": 0.466, "entry_price": 0.56, "original_size_shares": 11.357142857142856, "fill_pnl_pct": 12.5, "fill_pnl_usd": 0.795, "pnl_pct_mid": 14.29, "pnl_pct_top": 12.5, "trigger_vs_level_pp": 0.0, "mfe_drift_pp": 7.0, "current_drift_pp": 7.0, "hours_held": 0.63, "fill_id": "4127bade-054c-4ca2-8cf8-1b511148a9cf"}