Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? ↗

Price fell 3.0pp from 72.5% to 69.5% over 1h (steady). Now at 69.5%.

Days to resolution: 23 days. Theta-bleed is active because the deadline is within 90 days, the trend is DOWN, and a positive action (Massie winning the nomination) is required for YES. In this context, absence of direct news is bearish for YES, supporting continued drift downward. Step 1a: There are zero ★DIRECT events—no filings, withdrawals, endorsements, or polling numbers—so the news does not directly support either side. The trend is DOWN, implying NO is becoming more likely, and the news is essentially STARVED of resolution-class information. The CONTEXT news is mostly commentary on Massie's political positioning, his history of surviving Trump-backed challenges, and the dynamics of the race, but none of it constitutes a concrete process step or new development affecting the nomination outcome. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. Remaining space: 19.5pp (from 69.5% to 50%). Step 3 hard rule check: No news-trend conflict, not mixed (no signals at all), and theta-bleed supports continuation per Rule 4 Exception B. No boundary or exhaustion issues. The absence of news in a theta-bleed market justifies further drift in the current direction.