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○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 55c73602-5c78-49ca-a54b-85bbb7af4194
· signal: d9dea2df
· event: KY-04 Republican Primary Winner
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
PHASE4 MFE GIVEBACK
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$+5.81
pnl %
+29.03%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: MEDIUM
broker: paper
MOM DOWN — anchor→trigger: 72.5% → 69.5% over 1h, cusum=-3.801. Days to resolution: 23 days. Theta-bleed is active because the deadline is within 90 days, the trend is DOWN, and a positive action (Massie winning the nomination) is required for YES. In this context, absence of direct news is bearish for YES, supporting continued drift downward. Step 1a: There are
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 65 | 0.3100 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 65 | 0.2200 | 0.2200 → 0.2200 (1 lvl) | SL | $-5.81 |
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.31, "size_usd": 20.0, "target_price": 0.355, "stop_price": 0.25, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.71, "yes_ask": 0.78, "yes_mid": 0.745, "yes_spread_pp": 7.0, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.22, "walk_top_size": 1656.44, "walk_filled_shares": 64.52, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.22, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.22, "side_bid": 0.22, "side_mid": 0.255, "fill_price": 0.22, "fill_shares": 64.52, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 64.52, "target_price": 0.355, "stop_price": 0.25, "entry_price": 0.31, "original_size_shares": 64.51612903225806, "fill_pnl_pct": -29.03, "fill_pnl_usd": -5.8065, "pnl_pct_mid": -17.74, "pnl_pct_top": -29.03, "trigger_vs_level_pp": -3.0, "fill_id": "79e317f9-d6fd-462b-adc0-b2a190eab9d8"}