Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election? ↗

Price rose 9.6pp from 49.9% to 59.5% over 28.5h (front_loaded), then reversed. Now at 57.5%, down 2.0pp from peak, 1.5h after the peak. [Prior context: 24h ago: 55.7%, 72h range: 41.1%-59.5%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = BJP wins the most seats; NO = TMC/another party wins more seats. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World, despite no direct resolution evidence. Momentum check: E=0, D=2, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=1 (priced-in: E=0, D=1).
Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: NEUTRAL
Price move direction: UP (from 50% to 60%)
Alignment: N/A
Theta: NEUTRAL — neutral
Logical Divergence: Yes — price rose while fresh verified signals leaned against BJP (e.g., “Bengal polls: Advantage Trinamool in phase 2” on 4/25) and prior polling showed TMC ahead (priced-in). No ★ DIRECT resolution-level items (exit polls/seat tallies) were reported; partisan claims and high turnout rhetoric are process/context, not settlement-grade. Given a ~10pp front-loaded rise on context-only news and at least one fresh D signal, this leg looks overstretched; expect some mean reversion (partial), hence OVERPRICED with SMALL size.