Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? ↗

Price fell 3.2pp from 67.5% to 64.3% over 1h (spike). Now at 64.3%.

Days to resolution: 234 days. Election/leadership market — Theta: NEUTRAL. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports YES (reports that Mojtaba Khamenei is active, meeting the military chief, and issuing new directives), and the trend is DOWN in NO (NO becoming less likely), so they ALIGN. The story is intensifying today with a first-on-record meeting since March and a formal directive to the armed forces, widely confirmed across outlets. After clustering: (1) Khamenei’s meeting with Ali Abdollahi and issuance of a new directive (ACTION), (2) official statements and media reports on his recovery/health and US intel noting his ongoing leadership role (RHETORIC). Fresh vs stale: trend_fresh=1, trend_stale=0, counter_fresh=0, counter_stale=0. Momentum signals: trend=1, counter=0; with no counter-actions and a fresh leadership-action catalyst, follow-through lower in NO is more likely over the next 2-3 days; Remaining space: 64.3pp. Hard rule checks: Rule 1 (conflict) not triggered; Rule 2 (balanced mixed) not triggered; Rule 4 (weak/echo phrasing) avoided; Rule 5 (spike exhaustion) N/A (move 3.2pp); Theta rules N/A.