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● OPEN · BUY_NO
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 0f69b19e-5055-416e-9a8a-93748fa0d706
· signal: 26c8fc02
· event: Iran leader end of 2026?
entered
signal:
exited
still open
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
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decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: MEDIUM
broker: paper
MOM DOWN — anchor→trigger: 67.5% → 64.3% over 1h, cusum=-5.592. Days to resolution: 234 days. Election/leadership market — Theta: NEUTRAL. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports YES (reports that Mojtaba Khamenei is active, meeting the military chief, and issuing new directives), and the trend is DOWN in NO (NO becoming less likely), so they ALIGN. The story is
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 279 | 0.3580 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 |
re-evaluation history Phase 2 trigger detector + Stage 1 cheap filter + Stage 2 gpt-5 verdict · shows what news fired the trigger and how the LLM re-judged it
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: Conflicting reports on Mojtaba Khamenei's health and role in governance could significantly impact perceptions of his leadership stability and influence.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
BUY_NO
/ MEDIUM
· CONTINUE
verdict held: entry=BUY_NO/MEDIUM new=BUY_NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (10 items · score 9.17 )
- 2026-05-08T03:43 [Newslex Point] Trump Says US-Iran Ceasefire Still In Place After Exchange Of St..
- 2026-05-08T08:26 [myKhel.com] FIFA World Cup 2026: Will Iran Participate In The Upcoming Continental Football Tournament?
- 2026-05-08T12:56 [FXStreet] GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Bulls defend 100-day SMA while momentum remains subdued | FXStreet
- 2026-05-08T14:13 [FXStreet] GBP/USD advances as Dollar slips despite solid NFP, Pound remains firm | FXStreet
- 2026-05-08T22:57 [EconoTimes] FxWirePro: GBP/NZD downtrend loses steam, remains on bearish path - EconoTimes
- 2026-05-09T00:09 [Mail Online] Loyalists apart, there were few words of support for Starmer
- 2026-05-09T03:01 [Anadolu Ajansı] US intelligence sees Iran's new supreme leader influencing war strategy: Report
- 2026-05-09T08:14 [United News of Ind] US sanctions entities over Iran's overseas military procurement networks
- 2026-05-09T08:44 [Al Arabiya English] Conflicting reports on Iran Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s health, role in governance - Al Arabiya English
- 2026-05-09T08:44 [قناة العربية] Conflicting reports on Mojtaba Khamenei's health and role in governance
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing information about Mojtaba Khamenei's health and role without introducing new developments or insights.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headline about US negotiating with China does not pertain to Mojtaba Khamenei or Iran's leadership situation.
evidence news (1 items · score 0.13 )
- 2026-05-11T02:49 [dpa International] US to negotiate with China in South Korea ahead of Xi-Trump meeting
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing information about Mojtaba Khamenei's health and role without introducing new developments or insights.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing information about Mojtaba Khamenei's health and role without introducing new developments or insights.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing information about Mojtaba Khamenei's health and role without introducing new developments or insights.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing information about Mojtaba Khamenei's health and role without introducing new developments or insights.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines focus on external diplomatic efforts and do not provide new information about Mojtaba Khamenei's status or influence.
evidence news (3 items · score 1.10 )
- 2026-05-11T11:22 [سبأنت - وكالة سبأ] Baghaei: Pakistan remains official mediator in Iranian-U.S. Talks
- 2026-05-11T12:00 [LatestLY] World News | 2,500+ Evacuated from Iran: As West Asia Crisis Deepens, MEA Activates 24/7 War Room | LatestLY
- 2026-05-11T12:04 [Newstarget.com] Pezeshkian: Iran Ready to Prove Peaceful Nature of Nuclear Program, Offers Assurance to Neighbors
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines provide updated assessments of Khamenei's health and his role in negotiations, which could influence perceptions of his leadership stability and Iran's strategic direction.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
BUY_NO
/ MEDIUM
· CONTINUE
verdict held: entry=BUY_NO/MEDIUM new=BUY_NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (5 items · score 2.37 )
- 2026-05-09T01:43 [ynetnews] US intelligence believes Khamenei remains key figure in Iran’s war strategy despite serious injuries - ynetnews
- 2026-05-09T09:54 [صوت الإمارات] Iran reveals the truth about Mojtaba Khamenei’s health condition after rumors of his illness - صوت الإمارات
- 2026-05-09T19:27 [AOL.com] Iran’s disfigured, ‘probably gay,’ supreme leader directing negotiations with US: intelligence - AOL.com
- 2026-05-09T21:56 [TRT World] Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei in 'full health' following US-Israeli attacks - TRT World
- 2026-05-11T12:00 [LatestLY] World News | 2,500+ Evacuated from Iran: As West Asia Crisis Deepens, MEA Activates 24/7 War Room | LatestLY
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not mention Mojtaba Khamenei or provide new information about his status or influence in Iran.
evidence news (3 items · score 0.69 )
- 2026-05-11T12:29 [Amnesty Internatio] Red lines not red carpets: Why Italy & Germany must support suspending EU-Israel Agreement
- 2026-05-11T13:17 [News Directory 3] EU Foreign Policy: Israel Sanctions and Iran's Energy Crisis - News Directory 3
- 2026-05-11T14:12 [Greater Kashmir] Iran releases Nobel Laureate Narges Mohammadi on bail
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headline about Trump's comments on U.S.-Iran diplomacy does not provide new information about Mojtaba Khamenei's status or influence.
evidence news (1 items · score 0.37 )
- 2026-05-11T21:25 [english.news.cn] Trump says U.S.-Iran truce on "massive life support" as diplomacy continues
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing information about Mojtaba Khamenei's health and role without introducing new developments or insights.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing information about Mojtaba Khamenei's health and role without introducing new developments or insights.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without providing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing information about Mojtaba Khamenei's health and role without introducing new developments or insights.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without providing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headline discusses a clash over a peace proposal, which does not provide new information about Mojtaba Khamenei's status or influence.
evidence news (1 items · score 0.39 )
- 2026-05-11T12:00 [GlobalSecurity.org] US, Iran Clash Over Peace Proposal As Gulf Stalemate Continues
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's active role and health status without providing new information that would alter the existing understanding of his position.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines focus on political pressure within the UK government and do not relate to Mojtaba Khamenei or the Iranian political situation.
evidence news (2 items · score 0.57 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-11T23:48 [AOL.com] Cabinet ministers ‘may well’ tell Starmer to quit at Tuesday meeting, health minister says - AOL.com
- 2026-05-12T13:46 [Al Jazeera] Starmer defiant at cabinet meeting amid growing pressure to resign - Al Jazeera
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headline about Starmer does not relate to Mojtaba Khamenei or the Iranian political situation, thus it does not change the information picture.
evidence news (1 items · score 0.35 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-12T13:46 [Al Jazeera] Starmer defiant at cabinet meeting amid growing pressure to resign - Al Jazeera
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's active role and health status, which were already established in previous reports.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without providing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's active role and health status, which were already established in previous reports.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without providing new information that would alter the existing understanding of his position or influence.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing information about Mojtaba Khamenei's health and role without introducing new developments or insights.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without providing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's active role and health status, which were already established in previous reports.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headline about hantavirus concerns in Cuba does not relate to Mojtaba Khamenei or the Iranian political situation, thus it does not materially change the information picture.
evidence news (1 items · score 0.16 )
- 2026-05-13T16:26 [Cuba Headlines Dig] Hantavirus Concerns Stir Memories of COVID in Cuba
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headline is unrelated to Mojtaba Khamenei or the situation in Iran, focusing instead on a California poll.
evidence news (1 items · score 0.23 )
- 2026-05-13T19:57 [- Emerson Polling] California 2026 Poll: Becerra Continues to Surge, Steyer and Hilton Compete for Second Spot - - Emerson Polling
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without providing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without providing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's active role and health status, which were already established in previous reports.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Khamenei's health and military directives without introducing new information that alters the existing narrative.
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.358, "size_usd": 100.0, "target_price": 0.407, "stop_price": 0.298, "broker": "paper"}