Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? ↗

Price rose 8.5pp from 57.5% to 66.0% over 76.5h (spike), then reversed. Now at 64.0%, down 2.0pp from peak, 1.5h after the peak. [Prior context: 24h ago: 55.5%, 72h range: 52.0%-66.0%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = a provincial government or competent authority officially schedules an independence referendum before end-2026; NO = no official scheduling occurs by then. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 58% to 66%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
No Strong Divergence: the rise was driven by one process headline (separatists submitting a petition and claiming enough signatures) repeated across outlets, not by any ★ DIRECT step toward scheduling. Critically, petition submission/claims are not the same as Elections Alberta certifying the petition nor the province announcing and calendaring a vote; thus the move leaned ahead of the settlement mechanics. Given the lack of a verified institutional action (e.g., cabinet order, legislation, or formal writ setting a date), an 8.5pp repricing on process-only news likely overshot, so some reversion is warranted.

Kill switches:
- Elections Alberta officially certifies the petition and confirms it legally compels the government to hold a referendum.
- Alberta Cabinet issues an order-in-council setting a referendum date on leaving Canada.
- Alberta Legislature passes a bill or resolution scheduling an independence referendum with a specified date.
- Premier or responsible minister announces a referendum date and Elections Alberta posts the official writ/timetable.
- Another province’s government (e.g., Quebec) formally schedules a referendum to leave Canada before 2027.