← all positions
○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 5d252673-c627-4a1c-9579-2823b085481b
· signal: fd1d4f5a
· event: Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● MFE GIVEBACK
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$-0.54
pnl %
-1.19%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: SMALL
broker: paper
Assessment: OVERPRICED Conviction: MEDIUM Size: SMALL Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES = a provincial government or competent authority officially schedules an independence referendum before end-2026; NO = no official scheduling occurs by then. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN Price move direction: UP (from 58% to 66%) Alignment: OPPOSITE Theta: DO
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 125 | 0.3600 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 125 | 0.3557 | 0.3600 → 0.3557 (3 lvl) | MFE_GIVEBACK | $-0.54 |
re-evaluation history Phase 2 trigger detector + Stage 1 cheap filter + Stage 2 gpt-5 verdict · shows what news fired the trigger and how the LLM re-judged it
HARD_TIER1
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide any new information regarding the Alberta referendum situation, merely restating existing knowledge.
evidence news (10 items · score 4.69 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-02T11:49 [News.az] Trump insists China trip will proceed despite Iran tensions | News.az
- 2026-05-02T12:13 [NewsX] The Big NATO Collapse: Why US Pulled 5,000 Troops From Germany - And Is Spain Next? Explained
- 2026-05-03T07:48 [International Busi] Trump Confirms New Iran Proposal but Signals It May Be Dead on Arrival
- 2026-05-03T12:31 [Foreign Policy Jou] Pete Hegseth Orders 5,000 US Troops Out of Germany Following German Chancellor's Iran Criticism
- 2026-05-03T23:31 [International Busi] 'Deeply Fearful': Trump Spiritual Adviser Paula White-Cain Issues Chilling Warning Over Secret White House Decisions
- 2026-05-04T00:44 [newKerala.com] Merz: US Remains Germany's Top NATO Partner Despite Trump Feud
- 2026-05-04T12:05 [anews] Iran hangs three men over January protests in execution wave
- 2026-05-04T14:26 [The Grand Junction] Alberta separatists seek vote to leave Canada
- 2026-05-04T18:12 [Curated - BLOX Dig] LA City Council member seeks to allow noncitizens to vote
- 2026-05-04T20:44 [WJLA] Virginia redistricting referendum in limbo following Virginia Supreme Court decision
HARD_TIER1
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide any new information regarding the Alberta referendum situation, merely restating existing knowledge.
evidence news (10 items · score 4.69 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-02T11:49 [News.az] Trump insists China trip will proceed despite Iran tensions | News.az
- 2026-05-02T12:13 [NewsX] The Big NATO Collapse: Why US Pulled 5,000 Troops From Germany - And Is Spain Next? Explained
- 2026-05-03T07:48 [International Busi] Trump Confirms New Iran Proposal but Signals It May Be Dead on Arrival
- 2026-05-03T12:31 [Foreign Policy Jou] Pete Hegseth Orders 5,000 US Troops Out of Germany Following German Chancellor's Iran Criticism
- 2026-05-03T23:31 [International Busi] 'Deeply Fearful': Trump Spiritual Adviser Paula White-Cain Issues Chilling Warning Over Secret White House Decisions
- 2026-05-04T00:44 [newKerala.com] Merz: US Remains Germany's Top NATO Partner Despite Trump Feud
- 2026-05-04T12:05 [anews] Iran hangs three men over January protests in execution wave
- 2026-05-04T14:26 [The Grand Junction] Alberta separatists seek vote to leave Canada
- 2026-05-04T18:12 [Curated - BLOX Dig] LA City Council member seeks to allow noncitizens to vote
- 2026-05-04T20:44 [WJLA] Virginia redistricting referendum in limbo following Virginia Supreme Court decision
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the petition and signatures without introducing new developments or insights.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headline does not relate to the Alberta referendum and does not provide any new information on the topic.
evidence news (1 items · score 0.13 )
- 2026-05-04T18:01 [Decrypt] Banks Stay Tight-Lipped as Senators Reveal Proposed Clarity Act Stablecoin Deal - Decrypt
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the petition and signatures without introducing new developments or insights.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the petition and signatures without introducing new developments or insights.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the petition and signatures without introducing new developments or insights.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the petition and signatures without introducing new developments or insights.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the petition and signatures without introducing new developments or insights.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headline does not relate to the Alberta referendum and does not change the information picture regarding the market.
evidence news (1 items · score 0.16 )
- 2026-05-05T09:52 [The Star ] West Asia conflict spotlights energy, sea lanes at Asean Summit in Philippines
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.36, "size_usd": 45.0, "target_price": 0.415, "stop_price": 0.295, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.62, "yes_ask": 0.64, "yes_mid": 0.63, "yes_spread_pp": 2.0, "walk_levels_used": 3, "walk_top_fill": 0.36, "walk_top_size": 93.28, "walk_filled_shares": 125.0, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.3557, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.43, "side_bid_top": 0.36, "side_bid": 0.3557, "side_mid": 0.37, "fill_price": 0.3557, "fill_shares": 125.0, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 125.0, "target_price": 0.415, "stop_price": 0.295, "entry_price": 0.36, "original_size_shares": 125.0, "fill_pnl_pct": -1.19, "fill_pnl_usd": -0.5375, "pnl_pct_mid": 2.78, "pnl_pct_top": 0.0, "trigger_vs_level_pp": -1.43, "mfe_drift_pp": 3.0, "current_drift_pp": -0.43, "hours_held": 8.75, "fill_id": "403f620f-0b0b-4e57-b4f0-4984babe5b0c"}