Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? ↗

Price fell 9.5pp from 66.7% to 57.2% over 79.5h (front_loaded), then reversed. Now at 59.2%, up 2.0pp from trough, 1.5h after the trough.

Semantic Polarity: YES = Mojtaba remains Iran’s head of state through Dec 31, 2026; NO = he is removed/replaced/dies before then. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=2 (unity message from Mojtaba; Pezeshkian’s public loyalty/“one leader” line), D=2 (NYT-detailed reports of severe injuries/limited access; claims IRGC/generals are effectively managing), L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=2, D=2 (priced-in: E=0, D=1 for earlier “nowhere to be seen/no longer reigns supreme” narratives).
Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: UP
Price move direction: DOWN (from 67% to 57%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: UP — opposed
No Strong Divergence: news is mixed, and none of the incremental items is resolution-level (no resignation, no removal by Assembly of Experts, no death); severe-injury/governance-by-generals stories are bearish for a leadership market but stop well short of a change in head-of-state status, while the public “unity” signals offset. A 9.5pp, multi-day front-loaded drop on process/health-context alone looks larger than the structural update warrants, especially with immediate partial bounce. Net: the move was only partly justified; expect some mean reversion upward from the trough.