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○ CLOSED · BUY_YES

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · polymarket ↗

position_id: 75150095-0a27-42dd-a8fd-8fe9759e784a · signal: 3ca078db · event: Iran leader end of 2026?

entered

2026-04-24T12:03:43

signal: 2026-04-24T12:03:29

exited

2026-05-02T17:12:27

reason: ● TAKE PROFIT

resolves

2026-12-31

prices (BUY_YES frame)

entry

—

target

—

stop

—

exit

—

size

$—

pnl $

$+6.06

pnl %

+12.12%

decision context

direction: UP conviction: MEDIUM opportunity: SMALL broker: paper

Assessment: UNDERPRICED Conviction: MEDIUM Size: SMALL Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES = Mojtaba remains Iran’s head of state through Dec 31, 2026; NO = he is removed/replaced/dies before then. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=2 (unity message from Mojtaba; Pezeshkian’s public loyalty/“one leader” line), D=2 (NYT-detailed reports of severe injuries/limited access; claims IRGC/generals are effectively managing), L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=2, D=2 (priced-i

fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl

when	type	shares	price	walk top → avg	reason	pnl $
2026-05-02T17:12:27	CLOSE	84	0.6660	0.6660 → 0.6660 (1 lvl)	TP	$+6.06

re-evaluation history Phase 2 trigger detector + Stage 1 cheap filter + Stage 2 gpt-5 verdict · shows what news fired the trigger and how the LLM re-judged it

2026-05-01T19:33:05 TIME_BACKSTOP

stage 1 (0.0001$) YES_MATERIAL

YES_MATERIAL: New reports confirm severe injuries and suggest a potential leadership change, impacting the stability of Khamenei's position.

stage2_error:retrieval_failed:unknown news strategy: mr

2026-05-01T19:33:11 TIME_BACKSTOP

stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE

NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing concerns about Khamenei's health and leadership without introducing new information that would change the market's outlook.

2026-05-01T20:40:59 TIME_BACKSTOP

stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE

NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing concerns about Khamenei's health and leadership without introducing new information that would change the market's outlook.

2026-05-01T21:42:16 TIME_BACKSTOP

stage 1 (0.0001$) YES_MATERIAL

YES_MATERIAL: New reports confirm severe injuries and suggest a potential leadership change, impacting the stability of Khamenei's position.

stage 2 (0.0000$) YES / MEDIUM · UNDERPRICED

verdict held: entry=YES/MEDIUM new=YES/MEDIUM

2026-05-01T22:46:55 TIME_BACKSTOP

stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE

NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing concerns about Khamenei's health and leadership without introducing new information that would change the market's outlook.

2026-05-01T23:48:30 TIME_BACKSTOP

stage 1 (0.0001$) YES_MATERIAL

YES_MATERIAL: New reports confirm severe injuries and suggest a potential leadership change, impacting the stability of Khamenei's position.

stage 2 (0.0000$) YES / MEDIUM · UNDERPRICED

verdict held: entry=YES/MEDIUM new=YES/MEDIUM

2026-05-02T00:53:21 TIME_BACKSTOP

stage 1 (0.0001$) YES_MATERIAL

YES_MATERIAL: New reports confirm severe injuries and suggest a potential leadership change, impacting the stability of Khamenei's position.

stage 2 (0.0000$) YES / MEDIUM · UNDERPRICED

verdict held: entry=YES/MEDIUM new=YES/MEDIUM

2026-05-02T01:55:51 TIME_BACKSTOP

stage 1 (0.0001$) YES_MATERIAL

YES_MATERIAL: New reports confirm severe injuries and suggest a potential leadership change, impacting the stability of Khamenei's position.

stage 2 (0.0000$) YES / MEDIUM · UNDERPRICED

verdict held: entry=YES/MEDIUM new=YES/MEDIUM

2026-05-02T02:57:13 TIME_BACKSTOP

stage 1 (0.0001$) YES_MATERIAL

YES_MATERIAL: New reports confirm severe injuries and suggest a potential leadership change, impacting the stability of Khamenei's position.

stage 2 (0.0000$) YES / MEDIUM · UNDERPRICED

verdict held: entry=YES/MEDIUM new=YES/MEDIUM

2026-05-02T03:57:20 TIME_BACKSTOP

stage 1 (0.0001$) YES_MATERIAL

YES_MATERIAL: New reports confirm severe injuries and suggest a potential leadership change, impacting the stability of Khamenei's position.

stage 2 (0.0000$) YES / MEDIUM · UNDERPRICED

verdict held: entry=YES/MEDIUM new=YES/MEDIUM

2026-05-02T04:58:25 TIME_BACKSTOP

stage 1 (0.0001$) YES_MATERIAL

YES_MATERIAL: New reports confirm severe injuries and suggest a potential leadership change, impacting the stability of Khamenei's position.

stage 2 (0.0000$) YES / MEDIUM · UNDERPRICED

verdict held: entry=YES/MEDIUM new=YES/MEDIUM

2026-05-02T06:01:03 TIME_BACKSTOP

stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE

NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing concerns about Mojtaba Khamenei's health and leadership without introducing new information that would alter the market's outlook.

2026-05-02T07:02:56 TIME_BACKSTOP

stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE

NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing concerns about Mojtaba Khamenei's health and leadership without introducing new information that would alter the trading outlook.

2026-05-02T08:05:27 TIME_BACKSTOP

stage 1 (0.0001$) YES_MATERIAL

YES_MATERIAL: New reports confirm severe injuries and suggest a potential leadership change, impacting the stability of Khamenei's position.

stage 2 (0.0000$) YES / MEDIUM · UNDERPRICED

verdict held: entry=YES/MEDIUM new=YES/MEDIUM

2026-05-02T09:06:37 TIME_BACKSTOP

stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE

NO_NOISE: The new headlines largely reiterate existing health concerns and leadership dynamics without introducing new information that would significantly alter the market's outlook.

2026-05-02T10:06:46 TIME_BACKSTOP

stage 1 (0.0001$) YES_MATERIAL

YES_MATERIAL: New reports confirm severe injuries and suggest a potential leadership change, impacting the stability of Khamenei's position.

stage 2 (0.0000$) YES / MEDIUM · UNDERPRICED

verdict held: entry=YES/MEDIUM new=YES/MEDIUM

2026-05-02T11:07:19 TIME_BACKSTOP

stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE

NO_NOISE: The new headlines largely reiterate existing information about Khamenei's health and leadership status without introducing new developments.

2026-05-02T12:07:28 TIME_BACKSTOP

stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE

NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing concerns about Mojtaba Khamenei's health and leadership without introducing new information that would change the market's outlook.

2026-05-02T13:07:37 TIME_BACKSTOP

stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE

NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing concerns about Mojtaba Khamenei's health and leadership without introducing new information that would change the market's outlook.

2026-05-02T14:07:45 TIME_BACKSTOP

stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE

NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing concerns about Khamenei's health and leadership without introducing new information that would alter the market's outlook.

2026-05-02T15:07:55 TIME_BACKSTOP

stage 1 (0.0001$) YES_MATERIAL

YES_MATERIAL: New reports confirm severe injuries and suggest a potential leadership change, impacting the stability of Khamenei's position.

stage 2 (0.0000$) YES / MEDIUM · UNDERPRICED

verdict held: entry=YES/MEDIUM new=YES/MEDIUM

2026-05-02T16:12:01 TIME_BACKSTOP

stage 1 (0.0001$) YES_MATERIAL

YES_MATERIAL: New reports confirm severe injuries and suggest a potential leadership change, impacting the stability of Khamenei's position.

stage 2 (0.0000$) YES / MEDIUM · UNDERPRICED

verdict held: entry=YES/MEDIUM new=YES/MEDIUM

event timeline

2026-04-24T12:03:43

ENTRY

{"side": "BUY_YES", "entry_price": 0.594, "size_usd": 50.0, "target_price": 0.6658, "stop_price": 0.5182, "broker": "paper"}

2026-04-28T11:41:40

EXIT_PARTIAL

{"yes_bid": 0.013, "yes_ask": 0.989, "yes_mid": 0.501, "yes_spread_pp": 97.6, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.013, "walk_top_size": 76.93, "walk_filled_shares": 76.93, "walk_unfilled_shares": 7.25, "walk_avg_fill": 0.013, "walk_slippage_pp": -0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.013, "side_bid": 0.013, "side_mid": 0.501, "fill_price": 0.013, "fill_shares": 76.93, "is_partial": true, "remaining_before": 84.18, "target_price": 0.6658, "stop_price": 0.5182, "entry_price": 0.594, "original_size_shares": 84.17508417508418, "fill_pnl_pct": -97.81, "fill_pnl_usd": -44.6963, "pnl_pct_mid": -15.66, "pnl_pct_top": -97.81, "trigger_vs_level_pp": -50.52, "fill_id": "801295a6-3d14-4e80-8d83-7c136b17035b"}

2026-04-28T11:44:41

EXIT_SIGNAL

{"yes_bid": 0.013, "yes_ask": 0.989, "yes_mid": 0.501, "yes_spread_pp": 97.6, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.013, "walk_top_size": 76.93, "walk_filled_shares": 7.25, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.013, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.013, "side_bid": 0.013, "side_mid": 0.501, "fill_price": 0.013, "fill_shares": 7.25, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 7.25, "target_price": 0.6658, "stop_price": 0.5182, "entry_price": 0.594, "original_size_shares": 84.17508417508418, "fill_pnl_pct": -97.81, "fill_pnl_usd": -4.2094, "pnl_pct_mid": -15.66, "pnl_pct_top": -97.81, "trigger_vs_level_pp": -50.52, "fill_id": "cd3a3934-8514-4de1-b24b-09e4c34f1a70"}

2026-05-02T17:12:27

EXIT_SIGNAL

{"yes_bid": 0.666, "yes_ask": 0.668, "yes_mid": 0.667, "yes_spread_pp": 0.2, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.666, "walk_top_size": 424.0, "walk_filled_shares": 84.18, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.666, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.666, "side_bid": 0.666, "side_mid": 0.667, "fill_price": 0.666, "fill_shares": 84.18, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 84.18, "target_price": 0.6658, "stop_price": 0.5182, "entry_price": 0.594, "original_size_shares": 84.17508417508418, "fill_pnl_pct": 12.12, "fill_pnl_usd": 6.0606, "pnl_pct_mid": 12.29, "pnl_pct_top": 12.12, "trigger_vs_level_pp": 0.02, "mfe_drift_pp": 7.2, "current_drift_pp": 7.2, "hours_held": 197.15, "fill_id": "34cbdc9a-e208-49d6-9a6d-7e7c7d09e019"}