U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30? ↗

Price fell 9.0pp from 30.5% to 21.5% over 6h (front_loaded). Now at 21.5%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 31.5%, 72h range: 21.5%-70.0%] [EVR: 72h range 48.5pp — extreme volatility regime]

Days to resolution: 61 days. Theta-bleed is active: the market requires a positive U.S. ground operation in Mexico by June 30, and we are within 90 days of the deadline. The trend is DOWN (NO becoming more likely), and the ★DIRECT news during this window predominantly supports NO: all concrete U.S. military actions are strikes on drug boats in the eastern Pacific, not ground operations in Mexico. After clustering, there is only one distinct real-world event (U.S. strikes on boats), repeated in two articles, and none of these are ground operations in Mexico. There are no escalation signals (no evidence of U.S. ground troops, cross-border raids, or confirmed preparations for such an operation). The only other ★DIRECT items are rhetoric (Trump's "armed conflict" declaration, anti-corruption campaign hints), which per Principle 4 are NOISE, not action. The news is plateauing: the same boat strike event is being echoed, with no new developments toward the market's resolution. Momentum signals: trend=1 (boat strike, but not relevant to ground op), counter=0. Remaining space: 16.5pp (from 21.5% to 5%). Step 3 hard rule check: No conflict, not mixed, not a spike reversal, and theta-bleed supports further drift downward in the absence of escalation signals. The move is justified by the lack of progress toward a ground operation and the passage of time.