← all positions
○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: de7e9db0-4cfe-4b1c-aa6f-462cff509053
· signal: a6951391
· event: U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by...?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● STOP LOSS
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$-0.76
pnl %
-7.69%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: MEDIUM
broker: paper
MOM DOWN — anchor→trigger: 30.5% → 21.5% over 6h, cusum=-4.106. Days to resolution: 61 days. Theta-bleed is active: the market requires a positive U.S. ground operation in Mexico by June 30, and we are within 90 days of the deadline. The trend is DOWN (NO becoming more likely), and the ★DIRECT news during this window predominantly supports NO: all concrete U.S.
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 13 | 0.7800 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 13 | 0.7200 | 0.7200 → 0.7200 (1 lvl) | SL | $-0.76 |
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.78, "size_usd": 9.92, "target_price": 0.835, "stop_price": 0.72, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.24, "yes_ask": 0.28, "yes_mid": 0.26, "yes_spread_pp": 4.0, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.72, "walk_top_size": 97.0, "walk_filled_shares": 12.72, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.72, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.72, "side_bid": 0.72, "side_mid": 0.74, "fill_price": 0.72, "fill_shares": 12.72, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 12.72, "target_price": 0.835, "stop_price": 0.72, "entry_price": 0.78, "original_size_shares": 12.717948717948717, "fill_pnl_pct": -7.69, "fill_pnl_usd": -0.7631, "pnl_pct_mid": -5.13, "pnl_pct_top": -7.69, "trigger_vs_level_pp": 0.0, "fill_id": "6075c1fb-29d5-4c93-b16b-df103908f337"}