US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? ↗

Price rose 22.4pp from 26.1% to 48.5% over 40.0h (spike), then reversed. Now at 37.5%, down 11.0pp from peak, 0.5h after the peak.

Semantic Polarity: YES = a signed US–Iran nuclear agreement by June 30; NO = no such signed nuclear deal by then. Trend is UP, pricing in YES-World. Momentum check: E=3, D=3, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=3, D=3 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 26% to 48%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
No Strong Divergence; and the leading headlines are process-only and mostly about a one‑page memo to end fighting/reopen Hormuz or to set a framework for future nuclear negotiations (Axios/Moneycontrol), which does not meet the settlement bar of “a nuclear deal by June 30.” Counter-signals include Trump saying it’s “too early” and threatening “much higher level” bombing if Iran rejects, and Iran dismissing US-linked proposal reports—none of which constitutes a nuclear deal or even a nuclear-focused signed framework. Given the Cessation Market Exception, reopening a pathway to talks could justify a 5–15pp repricing, but a 22pp spike overshoots what the mixed, indirect news supports; thus the move should mean-revert.

Kill switches:
- Joint US–Iran announcement that a nuclear (even interim) agreement has been agreed and signed
- Release of an official US or Iranian fact sheet/text detailing nuclear terms (enrichment caps, centrifuge limits, IAEA access) with stated mutual acceptance
- IAEA announcement confirming a new verified nuclear compliance arrangement under a just-signed deal
- US Treasury/State issues formal nuclear-related sanctions waivers explicitly tied to a new agreement
- Coordinated statements from both capitals confirming “agreement in principle” on the nuclear file with signing scheduled before June 30