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○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 94a81281-fd2d-4798-b7c3-36c549ba83df
· signal: d6e19db1
· event: US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
MFE GIVEBACK LEGACY PRE MIN FLOOR
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$-7.06
pnl %
-7.79%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: LARGE
broker: paper
Assessment: OVERPRICED Conviction: MEDIUM Size: LARGE Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES = a signed US–Iran nuclear agreement by June 30; NO = no such signed nuclear deal by then. Trend is UP, pricing in YES-World. Momentum check: E=3, D=3, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=3, D=3 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN Price move direction: UP (from 26% to 48%) Alignment: OPPOSITE Theta: DOWN — opposed No Strong Divergence; and the leading headlines are proces
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 146 | 0.6200 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 146 | 0.5717 | 0.5800 → 0.5717 (2 lvl) | MFE_GIVEBACK | $-7.06 |
re-evaluation history Phase 2 trigger detector + Stage 1 cheap filter + Stage 2 gpt-5 verdict · shows what news fired the trigger and how the LLM re-judged it
HARD_TIER1
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate ongoing tensions and specific demands from Iran that could impact the likelihood of a deal, which were not fully captured in previous reports.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (10 items · score 37.38 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-03T13:06 [The Express Tribun] Iran envoy criticises US behaviour as aggressive, says talks hinge on Washington's sincerity
- 2026-05-03T13:23 [China Daily] Iran returns serve to US in battle of diplomacy
- 2026-05-03T13:30 [The New Arab] Kurdish troops join Syria's army as unity efforts gather pace
- 2026-05-03T13:33 [GEO TV] Iranian envoy reaffirms Pakistan's 'central role' in ongoing talks with US
- 2026-05-03T14:03 [THE LOCAL REPORT A] Iran conveys new proposals to US to break deadlock in peace talks - THE LOCAL REPORT ARTICLES
- 2026-05-03T14:45 [GV Wire] What to Know About the U.S.-Iran Peace Talks
- 2026-05-03T15:00 [The Frontier Post] Iran says US must change approach for talks to advance; proposal sent via Pakistan
- 2026-05-03T15:12 [ExBulletin] Trump casts doubt on Iran peace deal, says Tehran didn't 'pay a high enough price' | US-Israeli war against Iran - ExBulletin
- 2026-05-03T17:01 [Oman Observer] Israel approves deal to buy fighter jets from US
- 2026-05-03T19:25 [Yeni Şafak] Syrian, Egyptian foreign ministers hold talks in Cairo on first official visit
HARD_TIER1
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate ongoing tensions and specific demands from Iran that could impact the likelihood of a deal, which were not fully captured in previous reports.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (10 items · score 42.15 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-03T13:06 [The Express Tribun] Iran envoy criticises US behaviour as aggressive, says talks hinge on Washington's sincerity
- 2026-05-03T13:23 [China Daily] Iran returns serve to US in battle of diplomacy
- 2026-05-03T13:30 [The New Arab] Kurdish troops join Syria's army as unity efforts gather pace
- 2026-05-03T13:33 [GEO TV] Iranian envoy reaffirms Pakistan's 'central role' in ongoing talks with US
- 2026-05-03T14:03 [THE LOCAL REPORT A] Iran conveys new proposals to US to break deadlock in peace talks - THE LOCAL REPORT ARTICLES
- 2026-05-03T14:45 [GV Wire] What to Know About the U.S.-Iran Peace Talks
- 2026-05-03T15:00 [The Frontier Post] Iran says US must change approach for talks to advance; proposal sent via Pakistan
- 2026-05-03T15:12 [ExBulletin] Trump casts doubt on Iran peace deal, says Tehran didn't 'pay a high enough price' | US-Israeli war against Iran - ExBulletin
- 2026-05-03T17:01 [Oman Observer] Israel approves deal to buy fighter jets from US
- 2026-05-03T19:25 [Yeni Şafak] Syrian, Egyptian foreign ministers hold talks in Cairo on first official visit
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate a potential breakthrough in US-Iran talks and specific threats from Trump, which could significantly impact market sentiment and trading positions.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (10 items · score 4.99 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-06T12:33 [Palestine Chronicl] US-Iran Framework Talks Progress as Tehran Denies Active Nuclear Negotiations - Palestine Chronicle
- 2026-05-06T12:49 [Free Press Kashmir] US-Iran talks near possible breakthrough on war framework
- 2026-05-06T12:49 [The Media Line] Iran Reviews 14-Point US Proposal to End War and Restart Nuclear Talks
- 2026-05-06T13:01 [WalesOnline] Trump threatens new wave of 'higher intensity' strikes on Iran
- 2026-05-06T13:38 [english.news.cn] Trump threatens to bomb Iran at much higher level if peace deal is not reached
- 2026-05-06T13:38 [bankingnews.gr] U-turn: Iran denies 14-point deal with US - Trump ultimatum: We will bomb you if you do not agree
- 2026-05-06T13:44 [Yonhap News Agency] Trump warns 'much higher-level' bombing will start if Iran does not agree to a deal | Yonhap News Agency
- 2026-05-06T13:51 [Internewscast Jour] Trump Cautiously Awaits Iran Peace Deal, Says It's 'Too Soon' for Celebration Amid Nearing Agreement - Internewscast Journal
- 2026-05-06T14:00 [ThePrint] Iran says it is reviewing new US proposal after sources say sides closing in on deal
- 2026-05-06T14:08 [Daily Times] Ishaq Dar seeks lasting US-Iran peace deal - Daily Times
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate progress in the US-Iran talks and potential finalization of a peace deal, which could significantly impact market sentiment and trading positions.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (10 items · score 5.51 )
- 2026-05-03T22:36 [Seeking Alpha] Oil falls as Trump signals Hormuz shipping plan, Iran talks progress - Seeking Alpha
- 2026-05-06T10:10 [CNA] Stocks gain and oil slides after Iran peace deal report
- 2026-05-06T13:46 [Market Screener] TSX opens 1% up as miners gain on US-Iran peace deal hopes
- 2026-05-06T13:50 [The New Arab] Exclusive: Iran-US talks not yet at stage for agreement
- 2026-05-06T13:52 [Daily Times] Iran pushes for comprehensive US deal amid Gulf tensions - Daily Times
- 2026-05-06T13:53 [WTAJ - www.wtaj.co] The Latest: Trump threatens bombing if Iran doesn't reopen strait amid report of deal to end the war
- 2026-05-06T13:53 [Mediaite] 'Terrible Deal': Fox's Hugh Hewitt Trashes Trump Peace Framework After Interviewing Him on Monday
- 2026-05-06T14:13 [Daily Times] Oil prices fall below 100 dollars on Iran deal hopes - Daily Times
- 2026-05-06T14:19 [London South East] GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks gain and oil slides after Iran peace deal report | Financial News
- 2026-05-06T14:33 [Greater Kashmir] US and Iran close to finalising peace deal
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate a potential breakthrough in the US-Iran deal and heightened threats from Trump, which could significantly impact market sentiment and trading positions.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (6 items · score 2.87 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-06T10:10 [CNA] Stocks jump and oil slides after Iran peace deal report
- 2026-05-06T12:56 [The Telegraph] US President Donald Trump threatens 'much higher level' attacks on Iran if they don't agree to peace deal
- 2026-05-06T14:12 [Sahara Reporters] Trump Threatens Massive Bombing Of Iran, Says ‘Epic Fury' Will End When Tehran Complies With Demands
- 2026-05-06T14:57 [MEO] US, Iran 'close to deal' to end war as Pakistan signals breakthrough
- 2026-05-06T15:05 [TASS] Trump says too early to prepare for signing peace deal with Iran -- newspaper
- 2026-05-06T15:34 [Winnipeg Free Pres] Canadian and U.S. stock markets up on hopes of deal to end war in the Middle East
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate progress in US-Iran talks and involvement from China, suggesting a shift in dynamics that could impact the likelihood of a deal.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (5 items · score 2.05 )
- 2026-05-06T11:56 [protothemanews.com] "Relief" for global bonds amid optimism over a US-Iran peace deal - ProtoThema English
- 2026-05-06T12:39 [Palestine Chronicl] US-Iran Framework Talks Progress as Tehran Denies Active Nuclear Negotiations - Palestine Chronicle
- 2026-05-06T13:44 [Al-Monitor] Iran, China discuss Hormuz reopening amid potential US-Iran talks
- 2026-05-06T14:46 [Al-Monitor] Lebanon, Israel eye third round of talks, but no Netanyahu-Aoun meeting in sight
- 2026-05-06T15:57 [NEO TV | Voice of ] Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi hails 'constructive' talks with Chinese counterpart Wang Yi
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines largely reiterate existing sentiments and warnings from Trump regarding the Iran deal without introducing new information.
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.62, "size_usd": 90.66, "target_price": 0.7052, "stop_price": 0.5204, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
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