Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? ↗

Price rose 12.1pp from 55.4% to 67.5% over 8.0h (steady), then reversed. Now at 64.5%, down 3.0pp from peak, 0.5h after the peak. [Prior context: 24h ago: 53.0%, 72h range: 38.5%-68.0%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = Trump announces the US blockade of Hormuz is lifted by Apr 30, 2026; NO = no such announcement. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=2, D=3, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=2, D=3 (priced-in: E=1, D=1). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 55% to 68%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
Price rose despite bearish incremental signals: Trump said the Strait “would stay blocked” and no truce extension (D8), and Iran publicly refused talks under pressure (D8); the only fresh bullish cues were process-level reopeners (US VP flying to Pakistan for possible talks; Trump saying he’s open to meet Iranian leaders) that do not meet the settlement criterion of an announcement to lift the blockade. The prior-day Reuters-sourced report that Trump would “review” Pakistan’s proposal to scale back/lift the blockade (E7) was already priced into the 55% base. With no resolution-level E and a clear D8 blocker from Trump, a 12pp grind higher looks partly driven by process optimism and should retrace.