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○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 05c0e7b7-a386-4c3f-8ab7-13f2a8bf262e
· signal: 01b129fe
· event: Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● TAKE PROFIT
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$+7.31
pnl %
+18.28%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: SMALL
broker: paper
Assessment: OVERPRICED Conviction: MEDIUM Size: SMALL Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES = Trump announces the US blockade of Hormuz is lifted by Apr 30, 2026; NO = no such announcement. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=2, D=3, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=2, D=3 (priced-in: E=1, D=1). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN Price move direction: UP (from 55% to 68%) Alignment: OPPOSITE Theta: DOWN — opposed Price rose despite bearish incremental signals:
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.36, "size_usd": 40.0, "target_price": 0.4258, "stop_price": 0.2842, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_midpoint": 0.52, "side_price": 0.48, "exit_price": 0.4258, "target_price": 0.4258, "stop_price": 0.2842, "entry_price": 0.36, "size_shares": 111.11111111111111, "pnl_pct": 18.28, "pnl_usd": 7.3111, "observed_slippage_pp": 5.42}