Iran closes its airspace by May 8? ↗

Price rose 22.0pp from 20.5% to 42.5% over 8.5h (spike), then reversed. Now at 38.0%, down 4.5pp from peak, 0.5h after the peak.

Semantic Polarity: YES = Iran formally closes its airspace (e.g., nationwide NOTAM/official ban) by May 8; NO = no such closure is issued. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=2, D=1, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=2, D=1 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. 
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 20% to 42%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
No Strong Divergence: the news and price both lean higher, but the signals are indirect. The strongest items are UAE’s official claims of Iranian missile/drone attacks (raising retaliation risk) and an Iranian official saying another military attack is likely; neither is a DIRECT step toward Iran’s civil aviation authority closing the airspace, and there are no reports of Iranian NOTAMs, orders, or on-the-ground closure actions. Given zero resolution-adjacent, on-record closure steps, a 22pp spike on escalation-only context is an overshoot; some repricing is rational, but most of the move should mean-revert.