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○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 132b4349-156e-446d-8489-ee95ad8d5cba
· signal: 62ea5a59
· event: Iran closes its airspace by...?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● TAKE PROFIT
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$+39.68
pnl %
+15.87%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: LARGE
broker: paper
Assessment: OVERPRICED Conviction: MEDIUM Size: LARGE Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES = Iran formally closes its airspace (e.g., nationwide NOTAM/official ban) by May 8; NO = no such closure is issued. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=2, D=1, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=2, D=1 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN Price move direction: UP (from 20% to 42%) Alignment: OPPOSITE Theta: DOWN — opposed No Strong Divergence: the ne
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 397 | 0.6300 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 397 | 0.7300 | 0.7300 → 0.7300 (1 lvl) | TP | $+39.68 |
re-evaluation history Phase 2 trigger detector + Stage 1 cheap filter + Stage 2 gpt-5 verdict · shows what news fired the trigger and how the LLM re-judged it
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The closure of Iran's airspace by May 8 indicates a significant escalation in tensions that could impact military and diplomatic dynamics, which was not explicitly covered in the previous headlines.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The closure of Iran's airspace by May 8 indicates a significant escalation in tensions that could impact military actions and negotiations, altering the information landscape.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.63, "size_usd": 250.0, "target_price": 0.7272, "stop_price": 0.5228, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.26, "yes_ask": 0.27, "yes_mid": 0.265, "yes_spread_pp": 1.0, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.73, "walk_top_size": 5146.67, "walk_filled_shares": 396.83, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.73, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.73, "side_bid": 0.73, "side_mid": 0.735, "fill_price": 0.73, "fill_shares": 396.83, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 396.83, "target_price": 0.7272, "stop_price": 0.5228, "entry_price": 0.63, "original_size_shares": 396.8253968253968, "fill_pnl_pct": 15.87, "fill_pnl_usd": 39.6825, "pnl_pct_mid": 16.67, "pnl_pct_top": 15.87, "trigger_vs_level_pp": 0.28, "mfe_drift_pp": 10.0, "current_drift_pp": 10.0, "hours_held": 3.06, "fill_id": "3a8bca98-2380-4bc4-9d13-16d438a2f05a"}