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US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? ↗
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027
· US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? · category: Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Iran, Israel, Middle East, Nuclear, Politics, World
· resolves
run_id: c76d2bd7-41f8-4673-bedb-a79d1a6b6fbf
· started
· status
completed
· plan_emitted
view position ↗
○ closed
· VERDICT_FLIP
·
+$32.86
signal detected
● executed
detect_reversal
direction
DOWN
current / peak
70.5% / 72.5%
move_start
61.5%
reversal
+2.0pp
move size / hours
11.0pp / 14.5h
shape
spike
72h range
59.5%—72.5% (Δ13.0pp)
since peak
1.5h
Price rose 11.0pp from 61.5% to 72.5% over 14.5h (spike), then reversed. Now at 70.5%, down 2.0pp from peak, 1.5h after the peak.
news gathered
● executed
news retrieval (tomographic)
raw→filtered: 335 → 92
quality: HIGH
tokens: 24705
us_iran_nuclear_deal_events
noise
US experience fighting Iran offers lessons for China, experts say
article_thesis
noise
US, Iran no closer to ending war as Qatari tanker sails toward Strait of Hormuz - Middle East and Africa - The Jakarta Post
article_thesis
noise
Xinhua Headlines: U.S.-Iran standoff in Strait of Hormuz casts fresh shadow over peace prospects
article_antithesis
noise
Iran to play FIFA World Cup 2026, sets conditions for hosts
article_thesis
noise
Iran warns countries enforcing US sanctions will face 'difficulties' in Strait of Hormuz transit
article_thesis
noise
SURFACE FORCES : Iran Lost Track Of Their Naval Mines
article_antithesis
noise
Iran's Vatican Envoy: Pope-Rubio Meeting Aims to Contain Deepening U.S.-Vatican Rift
article_thesis
noise
Egypt, Qatar FMs discuss regional de-escalation, back US-Iran diplomacy
article_thesis
noise
Iran's Guards threaten US Mideast sites as Trump awaits Tehran response - World News
article_thesis
noise
How Israel built and used a secret Iraq base to support its war against Iran- Moneycontrol.com
article_precursor
relevant
The Guardian - "Un fruit mûr prêt à tomber" : comment Netanyahu a trompé Trump sur l'Iran - Tunisie numerique
article_thesis
noise
GeenStijl: Liveblog oorlog Iran. Schip aangevallen voor kust Qatar, staakt-het-vuren houdt nog altijd stand
article_precursor
relevant
Iran Sebut Selat Hormuz "Setara Bom Atom", Ketegangan dengan AS Kian Panas
article_thesis
noise
Trump awaits Iran's response amid relative calm in Hormuz
article_thesis
noise
Korean industry minister meets Lutnick for investment projects, shipbuilding talks
AI verdict
● executed
Prompt-MR · misprice analysis
OVERPRICED
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: LARGE
action: NO
gpt-5 · prompt_2_misprice_v9.0_theta_v3 · 17908 tokens
Semantic Polarity: YES = a US–Iran nuclear deal is formally agreed before 2027; NO = no such deal. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=1, D=2, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=1, D=2 (priced-in: E=1, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN Price move direction: UP (from 62% to 72%) Alignment: OPPOSITE Theta: DOWN — opposed No ★ DIRECT nuclear-deal steps occurred during the spike (no announced nuclear framework, no signed text, no confirmed nuclear provisions); the Miami mediator meeting and Iran “reviewing a 14‑point proposal” are ceasefire/war-process items, while multiple Iranian threats/delays (“keeps US waiting,” IRGC retaliation warnings) are blockers to a comprehensive accord. With incremental D>E and the move running against theta, this 11pp process-only repricing looks like an overshoot rather than resolution progress. Expect partial reversion from the spike high.
rule audit
● executed
audit_gate
✓
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