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US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: ff625fff-73f5-40c7-a2ac-4803f74d427a
· signal: 70822ba2
· event: US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● VERDICT FLIP
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$+32.86
pnl %
+33.33%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: LARGE
broker: paper
Assessment: OVERPRICED Conviction: MEDIUM Size: LARGE Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES = a US–Iran nuclear deal is formally agreed before 2027; NO = no such deal. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=1, D=2, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=1, D=2 (priced-in: E=1, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN Price move direction: UP (from 62% to 72%) Alignment: OPPOSITE Theta: DOWN — opposed No ★ DIRECT nuclear-deal steps occurred during the spike (no announce
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 329 | 0.3000 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 329 | 0.4000 | 0.4000 → 0.4000 (1 lvl) | VERDICT_FLIP | $+32.86 |
re-evaluation history Phase 2 trigger detector + Stage 1 cheap filter + Stage 2 gpt-5 verdict · shows what news fired the trigger and how the LLM re-judged it
HARD_TIER1
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: Trump's ultimatum for Iran to respond within a week introduces a new urgency and potential deadline that could significantly impact negotiations and market perceptions.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (10 items · score 36.20 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-07T08:04 [Trend] Iran signals readiness to resume U.S. talks via Pakistan mediation
- 2026-05-07T08:24 [24 News HD] FO says any US-Iran agreement In Pakistan would be an honour
- 2026-05-07T08:28 [News.az] Oil drops on hopes of Iran-US deal over Hormuz | News.az
- 2026-05-07T08:29 [Cedar News Newspap] Pakistan Says It Does Not Know Venue of Possible US-Iran Deal Signing, But Would Be Honored to Host It | Cedar News
- 2026-05-07T08:32 [Cedar News Newspap] WSJ: U.S. Insists on Inspections of Iranian Nuclear Facilities and Tough Conditions in Any Deal | Cedar News
- 2026-05-07T08:45 [Al-Manar TV Lebano] Pakistan Voices Optimism on US-Iran Talks, Offers to Host Agreement Signing - Al-Manar TV Lebanon
- 2026-05-07T09:13 [The Jerusalem Post] Donald Trump says Iran has one week to respond to US deal - The Jerusalem Post
- 2026-05-07T09:13 [The Jerusalem Post] Donald Trump says Iran has one week to respond to US deal - The Jerusalem Post
- 2026-05-07T09:13 [The Jerusalem Post] Donald Trump says Iran has one week to respond to US deal - The Jerusalem Post
- 2026-05-07T09:18 [Asian News Interna] Iran's President Pezeshkian accuses US of 'stabbing from behind' during talks with French President Macron
HARD_TIER1
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: Trump's ultimatum for Iran to respond within a week introduces a new urgency and potential timeline that could significantly impact market expectations.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (10 items · score 36.20 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-07T08:04 [Trend] Iran signals readiness to resume U.S. talks via Pakistan mediation
- 2026-05-07T08:24 [24 News HD] FO says any US-Iran agreement In Pakistan would be an honour
- 2026-05-07T08:28 [News.az] Oil drops on hopes of Iran-US deal over Hormuz | News.az
- 2026-05-07T08:29 [Cedar News Newspap] Pakistan Says It Does Not Know Venue of Possible US-Iran Deal Signing, But Would Be Honored to Host It | Cedar News
- 2026-05-07T08:32 [Cedar News Newspap] WSJ: U.S. Insists on Inspections of Iranian Nuclear Facilities and Tough Conditions in Any Deal | Cedar News
- 2026-05-07T08:45 [Al-Manar TV Lebano] Pakistan Voices Optimism on US-Iran Talks, Offers to Host Agreement Signing - Al-Manar TV Lebanon
- 2026-05-07T09:13 [The Jerusalem Post] Donald Trump says Iran has one week to respond to US deal - The Jerusalem Post
- 2026-05-07T09:13 [The Jerusalem Post] Donald Trump says Iran has one week to respond to US deal - The Jerusalem Post
- 2026-05-07T09:13 [The Jerusalem Post] Donald Trump says Iran has one week to respond to US deal - The Jerusalem Post
- 2026-05-07T09:18 [Asian News Interna] Iran's President Pezeshkian accuses US of 'stabbing from behind' during talks with French President Macron
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative on US-Iran relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative on US-Iran relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative on US-Iran relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative on US-Iran relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative on US-Iran relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative on US-Iran relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headline merely indicates ongoing discussions without introducing new information or developments.
evidence news (1 items · score 0.34 )
- 2026-05-10T14:32 [Anadolu Ajansı] Turkish foreign minister discusses Iran-US talks with Iranian counterpart
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate significant diplomatic engagement and potential shifts in negotiations that could impact the likelihood of a US-Iran nuclear deal by 2027.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate a refusal from Iran to address the nuclear program and reaffirm their red lines, which could significantly impact the likelihood of a deal.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (6 items · score 2.87 )
- 2026-05-10 [?] Iran Submits Response To US Draft Peace Proposal Via Pakistan To End West Asia War
- 2026-05-10T11:49 [Crypto Briefing] Secret Israeli base in Iraq revealed, escalating Israel-Iran tensions
- 2026-05-10T13:05 [NDTV Profit] Masoud Pezeshkian Says Talks Not 'Surrender', Reaffirms Iran's Red Lines
- 2026-05-10T14:56 [News Directory 3] Iran responds to U.S. ceasefire proposal, saying talks must focus on permanently ending the war on all fronts - Fortune - News Directory 3
- 2026-05-10T15:32 [Crypto Briefing] Netanyahu declares Iran conflict ongoing despite US-brokered ceasefire
- 2026-05-10T15:41 [New York Post] Iran refuses to address nuclear program in latest peace deal response to US
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate significant diplomatic engagement and potential shifts in negotiations that could impact the likelihood of a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal by 2027.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate significant diplomatic engagement and potential shifts in negotiations that could impact the likelihood of a US-Iran nuclear deal by 2027.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: Trump's hardline stance and Iran's response to the US proposal introduce new dynamics that could significantly impact the likelihood of a nuclear deal.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (5 items · score 2.38 )
- 2026-05-10T16:28 [mint] Pakistan says Iran's response to US peace proposal has been sent to Washington | Today News
- 2026-05-10T17:15 [Crypto Briefing] Trump says US surveils Iran's enriched uranium, plans extraction
- 2026-05-10T17:57 [Crypto Briefing] Trump's hardline stance dims prospects for US-Iran nuclear deal
- 2026-05-10T18:01 [The Boston Globe] Iran responds to latest US proposal to end war, but offers few details - The Boston Globe
- 2026-05-12 [?] China, US confirm Seoul trade talks days before Trump-Xi summit in Beijing
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The expectation of Iran's reply on May 9 introduces a specific timeline that could influence market sentiment and trading strategies.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (1 items · score 0.46 )
- 2026-05-10T18:32 [El-Balad.com] Rubio Expects Iran Reply on May 9 in Strait Of Hormuz Negotiations
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate significant diplomatic engagement and potential shifts in negotiations that could impact the likelihood of a US-Iran nuclear deal by 2027.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate significant diplomatic engagement and potential shifts in negotiations that could impact the likelihood of a US-Iran nuclear deal by 2027.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate significant diplomatic engagement and potential shifts in negotiations that could impact the likelihood of a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal by 2027.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headline introduces specific demands from Iran that could significantly impact the negotiation dynamics and expectations for a nuclear deal.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (1 items · score 0.45 )
- 2026-05-10T23:41 [China Daily] Iran's draft proposal for US talks demands ending war, removing sanctions, lifting naval blockade
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate renewed optimism about a U.S.-Iran peace deal, which could influence market sentiment and trading positions.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (2 items · score 0.74 )
- 2026-05-11T00:20 [bizzbuzz.news] Gold, silver to trade range-bound as investors watch US-Iran talks
- 2026-05-11T01:02 [NaturalNews.com] Oil Falls Below $100 a Barrel on Renewed Hopes of U.S.-Iran Peace Deal - NaturalNews.com
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines introduce specific demands from Iran that could significantly impact the negotiation dynamics and timeline for a nuclear deal.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (6 items · score 2.29 )
- 2026-05-11T00:02 [Social News XYZ] Iran's draft proposal for US talks; demands ending war, removing sanctions, lifting naval blockade
- 2026-05-11T00:31 [NST Online] Ringgit opens higher against US dollar amid ongoing Middle Asia peace talks | New Straits Times
- 2026-05-11T00:33 [Free Malaysia Toda] Ringgit opens higher amid ongoing Middle East peace talks
- 2026-05-11T01:02 [NaturalNews.com] Oil Falls Below $100 a Barrel on Renewed Hopes of U.S.-Iran Peace Deal - NaturalNews.com
- 2026-05-11T01:08 [Crypto Briefing] Netanyahu demands Iran remove uranium, complicating US-Iran nuclear talks
- 2026-05-11T01:43 [newKerala.com] Iran's Draft Proposal for US Talks: End War, Lift Sanctions
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headline introduces specific demands from Iran, which could significantly impact the negotiation dynamics and traders' expectations regarding a nuclear deal.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (1 items · score 0.44 )
- 2026-05-11T01:57 [LatestLY] Iran's Draft Proposal for US Talks; Demands Ending War, Removing Sanctions, Lifting Naval Blockade | 🌎 LatestLY
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate significant diplomatic engagement and potential shifts in negotiations that could impact the likelihood of a US-Iran nuclear deal by 2027.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The optimism about a US-Iran peace deal lifting market sentiment indicates a potential shift in trader expectations that could influence positions.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (2 items · score 0.61 )
- 2026-05-11T03:45 [Investing.com Indi] Gold Climbs As US-Iran Peace Deal Optimism Lifts Safe-Haven Market Sentiment Up By Kedia Advisory
- 2026-05-11T04:08 [The Khaama Press N] Afghanistan And Uzbekistan Sign 13 Trade Agreements At Business Forum - Khaama Press
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate significant diplomatic engagement and potential shifts in negotiations that could impact the likelihood of a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal by 2027.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative on US-Iran relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate significant diplomatic engagement and potential shifts in negotiations that could impact the likelihood of a US-Iran nuclear deal by 2027.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: New developments in US-Iran negotiations could indicate a shift in the likelihood of a nuclear deal by 2027, impacting trader sentiment.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate significant diplomatic engagement and potential shifts in negotiations that could impact the likelihood of a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal by 2027.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The mention of Trump preparing for both a new Iran deal and the possibility of war indicates a significant shift in the strategic landscape that could impact market expectations.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (6 items · score 2.15 )
- 2026-05-08T16:34 [The Nuclear Threat] What Would Make a New Iran Deal Better than the Last One? - The Nuclear Threat Initiative
- 2026-05-11 [?] Xi and Trump to hold talks during China visit
- 2026-05-11 [?] Xi and Trump to hold talks during China visit
- 2026-05-11T09:45 [CBN.com - The Chri] Iran Deal or War? Trump Prepares for Both Possibilities, Says Tehran Regime 'Playing Games'
- 2026-05-11T10:10 [Investing.com Sout] US trade delegation likely to visit India for talks By Investing.com
- 2026-05-11T10:49 [MoneyControl] Trade negotiations almost done, US officials likely to visit India month-end, says official- Moneycontrol.com
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The mention of Trump preparing for both a new Iran deal and the possibility of war introduces significant uncertainty and potential shifts in strategy that could impact market views.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (6 items · score 2.15 )
- 2026-05-08T16:34 [The Nuclear Threat] What Would Make a New Iran Deal Better than the Last One? - The Nuclear Threat Initiative
- 2026-05-11 [?] Xi and Trump to hold talks during China visit
- 2026-05-11 [?] Xi and Trump to hold talks during China visit
- 2026-05-11T09:45 [CBN.com - The Chri] Iran Deal or War? Trump Prepares for Both Possibilities, Says Tehran Regime 'Playing Games'
- 2026-05-11T10:10 [Investing.com Sout] US trade delegation likely to visit India for talks By Investing.com
- 2026-05-11T10:49 [MoneyControl] Trade negotiations almost done, US officials likely to visit India month-end, says official- Moneycontrol.com
TIME_BACKSTOP
→ EXITED
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate significant diplomatic engagement and potential shifts in negotiations that could impact the likelihood of a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal by 2027.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
OMIT
/ MEDIUM
· FAIR
flipped & exited: fill=0.4 shares=328.6 pnl=$32.86
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.3, "size_usd": 98.58, "target_price": 0.99, "stop_price": 0.05, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
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