US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? ↗

Price rose 23.3pp from 34.2% to 57.5% over 43.5h (spike), then reversed. Now at 52.0%, down 5.5pp from peak, 0.5h after the peak.

Semantic Polarity: YES = a formal, permanent US–Iran peace deal is signed/announced by the deadline; NO = no such agreement. Trend is UP, pricing in YES-World. Momentum check: E=2, D=1, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=2, D=1 (priced-in: E=3, D=2). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 34% to 58%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
No Strong Divergence; momentum modestly supports upside but only with process-level signals. The clearest E signals are the US pausing Hormuz escorts “amid progress” and Iran publicly saying it wants a “comprehensive/fair” deal; however, there is no signed framework or agreed text, Iran simultaneously says it won’t accept an “unfair” deal, and attacks in the Strait continue — none of which meets settlement criteria for a permanent peace deal. Process-only positives usually justify 5–10pp (perhaps a bit more for a notable de-escalatory pause), not a 23pp spike; thus the move likely overshot and should partially revert.

Kill switches:
- Joint US–Iran announcement of a signed peace agreement or normalization treaty with terms published
- Public release of a mutually endorsed 14‑point memorandum/framework by US and Iranian principals
- Scheduled, on-the-record date and venue for a signing ceremony announced by both governments
- UN Security Council resolution codifying a US–Iran peace/normalization endorsed by both parties
- Concrete confidence-building package tied to peace (e.g., synchronized sanctions relief and prisoner exchange) jointly announced by US and Iran