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Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? ↗
will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-june-30-382-954-769
· Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...? · category: Geopolitics, Politics, Russia Capture, Ukraine, Ukraine Map, World
· resolves
run_id: cf2c6392-298f-45fc-8b94-47c1275bfd6f
· started
· status
completed
· plan_emitted
view position ↗
○ closed
· VERDICT_FLIP
·
−$1.00
signal detected
● executed
detect_reversal
direction
DOWN
current / peak
32.4% / 34.7%
move_start
28.5%
reversal
+2.3pp
move size / hours
6.2pp / 12.5h
shape
front_loaded
72h range
28.4%—34.7% (Δ6.3pp)
since peak
1.0h
Price rose 6.2pp from 28.5% to 34.7% over 12.5h (front_loaded), then reversed. Now at 32.4%, down 2.3pp from peak, 1.0h after the peak.
news gathered
● executed
news retrieval (tomographic)
raw→filtered: 43 → 1
quality: HIGH
tokens: 4452
article_thesis
relevant
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 8, 2026
AI verdict
● executed
Prompt-MR · misprice analysis
OVERPRICED
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: SMALL
action: NO
override: OMIT_STRONG_ASSESSMENT
gpt-5 · prompt_2_misprice_v9.0_theta_v3 · 11845 tokens
Semantic Polarity: YES=Russia captures Kostyantynivka by June 30; NO=it does not by then. Trend is UP, pricing in YES-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified); Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0); Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN Price move direction: UP (from 28% to 35%) Alignment: OPPOSITE Theta: DOWN — opposed Logical Divergence: Yes — price rose without any pro-YES signals; Strong Divergence: No. There are no ★ DIRECT advances toward capture (no reports of entry, encirclement, or control of Kostyantynivka); the two ISW daily assessments are routine CONTEXT and do not satisfy resolution criteria. With no fresh E support and a front‑loaded 12.5h rise, this looks like a starved narrative pop; the 6.2pp spike is only partially justified and likely to mean-revert.
rule audit
● executed
audit_gate
✓
ALL