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○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: b8803c2c-d18d-43a3-a728-05afe5461a2d
· signal: 4b5c644b
· event: Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● VERDICT FLIP
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$-1.00
pnl %
-1.44%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: SMALL
broker: paper
Assessment: OVERPRICED Conviction: MEDIUM Size: SMALL Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES=Russia captures Kostyantynivka by June 30; NO=it does not by then. Trend is UP, pricing in YES-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified); Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0); Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN Price move direction: UP (from 28% to 35%) Alignment: OPPOSITE Theta: DOWN — opposed Logical Divergence: Yes — price rose without any pro-YES signals; Strong Divergenc
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 102 | 0.6800 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 102 | 0.6702 | 0.6710 → 0.6702 (2 lvl) | VERDICT_FLIP | $-1.00 |
re-evaluation history Phase 2 trigger detector + Stage 1 cheap filter + Stage 2 gpt-5 verdict · shows what news fired the trigger and how the LLM re-judged it
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: New developments in the Russian offensive could indicate a shift in strategy or progress that impacts the likelihood of capturing Kostyantynivka.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ HIGH
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/HIGH
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: New developments in the Russian offensive could indicate a shift in strategy or progress that impacts the likelihood of capturing Kostyantynivka.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines may provide updated insights or developments regarding the Russian offensive that could impact the likelihood of capturing Kostyantynivka.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines about Virginia redistricting do not relate to the situation in Ukraine and do not impact the assessment of Russia's military actions.
evidence news (1 items · score 0.17 )
- 2026-05-09T18:37 [MS NOW] Democrats lose edge to retake House after Virginia redistricting ruling
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: New developments in the Russian offensive could indicate changes in strategy or progress that affect the likelihood of capturing Kostyantynivka.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ HIGH
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/HIGH
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines provide updated assessments or developments that could influence the likelihood of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by the deadline.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ HIGH
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/HIGH
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: New developments in the Russian offensive could indicate a shift in strategy or progress that impacts the likelihood of capturing Kostyantynivka.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: New developments in the Russian offensive could indicate changes in strategy or progress that impact the likelihood of capturing Kostyantynivka.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ HIGH
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/HIGH
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information beyond what was already assessed in the May 8 report.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide additional insights or developments beyond the existing assessment.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide additional information beyond what was already known in the May 8 assessment.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information beyond what was already assessed in the May 8 report.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of the situation regarding Kostyantynivka.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: New developments in the Russian offensive could indicate a shift in strategy or progress that impacts the likelihood of capturing Kostyantynivka.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ HIGH
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/HIGH
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: New developments in the Russian offensive could indicate changes in strategy or progress that impact the likelihood of capturing Kostyantynivka.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ HIGH
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/HIGH
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines provide updated assessments or developments that could impact the likelihood of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by the deadline.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: New developments in the Russian offensive could indicate changes in strategy or troop movements affecting the likelihood of capturing Kostyantynivka.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: New developments in the Russian offensive could indicate a shift in strategy or progress that impacts the likelihood of capturing Kostyantynivka.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ HIGH
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/HIGH
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: New developments in the Russian offensive could indicate a shift in strategy or progress that impacts the likelihood of capturing Kostyantynivka.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ HIGH
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/HIGH
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of the situation regarding Kostyantynivka.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: New developments in the Russian offensive could indicate a shift in strategy or progress that impacts the likelihood of capturing Kostyantynivka.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ HIGH
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/HIGH
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of the situation regarding Kostyantynivka.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide any new information that alters the existing understanding of the situation regarding Kostyantynivka.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: New developments in the Russian offensive could indicate a shift in strategy or progress that impacts the likelihood of capturing Kostyantynivka.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ HIGH
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/HIGH
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: New developments in the Russian offensive could indicate a shift in strategy or progress that impacts the likelihood of capturing Kostyantynivka.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: New developments in the Russian offensive could indicate a shift in strategy or progress that impacts the likelihood of capturing Kostyantynivka.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: New developments in the Russian offensive could indicate a shift in strategy or progress that impacts the likelihood of capturing Kostyantynivka.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: New developments in the Russian offensive could indicate a shift in strategy or progress that impacts the likelihood of capturing Kostyantynivka.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide additional insights or developments beyond the existing assessment.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: New developments in the Russian offensive could indicate a shift in strategy or progress that impacts the likelihood of capturing Kostyantynivka.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ HIGH
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/HIGH
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide any new information that alters the existing understanding of the situation regarding Kostyantynivka.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: New developments in the Russian offensive could indicate changes in strategy or progress that impact the likelihood of capturing Kostyantynivka.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ HIGH
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/HIGH
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: New developments in the Russian offensive could indicate changes in strategy or progress that impact the likelihood of capturing Kostyantynivka.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ HIGH
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/HIGH
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: New developments in the Russian offensive could indicate a shift in strategy or progress that impacts the likelihood of capturing Kostyantynivka.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: New developments in the Russian offensive could indicate changes in strategy or progress that impact the likelihood of capturing Kostyantynivka.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ HIGH
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/HIGH
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: New developments in the Russian offensive could indicate changes in strategy or troop movements affecting the likelihood of capturing Kostyantynivka.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: New developments in the Russian offensive could indicate changes in strategy or progress that impact the likelihood of capturing Kostyantynivka.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide any new information that alters the existing understanding of the situation regarding Kostyantynivka.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines focus on a political clash unrelated to the military situation in Ukraine and do not impact the assessment of Russia's actions.
evidence news (1 items · score 0.14 )
- 2026-05-11T10:06 [MoneyControl] Who after Trump? Inside the high-stakes Vance vs Rubio Republican clash- Moneycontrol.com
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: New developments in the Russian offensive could indicate changes in strategy or progress that impact the likelihood of capturing Kostyantynivka.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: New developments in the Russian offensive could indicate changes in strategy or progress that affect the likelihood of capturing Kostyantynivka.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide any new information that alters the existing understanding of the situation regarding Kostyantynivka.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: New developments in the Russian offensive could indicate a shift in strategy or progress that impacts the likelihood of capturing Kostyantynivka.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: New developments in the Russian offensive could indicate changes in strategy or progress that impact the likelihood of capturing Kostyantynivka.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: New developments in the Russian offensive could indicate a shift in strategy or progress that impacts the likelihood of capturing Kostyantynivka.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: New developments in the Russian offensive could indicate a shift in strategy or progress that impacts the likelihood of capturing Kostyantynivka.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide additional information that alters the existing understanding of the situation regarding Kostyantynivka.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headline discusses U.S.-Iran relations and does not provide relevant information about Russia's military actions or the situation in Kostyantynivka.
evidence news (1 items · score 0.19 )
- 2026-05-11T21:00 [OilPrice.com] Who's Going To Fold First In The U.S.-Iran High Stakes Game? | OilPrice.com
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide any new information that alters the existing understanding of the situation regarding Kostyantynivka.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: New developments in the Russian offensive could indicate a shift in strategy or progress that impacts the likelihood of capturing Kostyantynivka.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headline about gun control in Minnesota is unrelated to the situation in Russia and does not impact the prediction market on Kostyantynivka.
evidence news (1 items · score 0.09 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-11T23:50 [CBS News] Minnesota House Speaker Lisa Demuth accused of holding gun control bill "hostage"
TIME_BACKSTOP
→ EXITED
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: New developments in the Russian offensive could indicate a shift in strategy or progress that impacts the likelihood of capturing Kostyantynivka.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
OMIT
/ MEDIUM
· FAIR
flipped & exited: fill=0.6702 shares=102.0735294117647 pnl=$-1.0003
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.68, "size_usd": 69.41, "target_price": 0.99, "stop_price": 0.43, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.313, "yes_ask": 0.329, "yes_mid": 0.321, "yes_spread_pp": 1.6, "walk_levels_used": 2, "walk_top_fill": 0.671, "walk_top_size": 19.21, "walk_filled_shares": 102.07, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.6702, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.08, "side_bid_top": 0.671, "side_bid": 0.6702, "side_mid": 0.679, "fill_price": 0.6702, "fill_shares": 102.07, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 102.07, "force_exit_reason": "VERDICT_FLIP", "force_exit_notes": "reeval[e085a3ba] entry=NO/MEDIUM new=OMIT/MEDIUM", "entry_price": 0.68, "original_size_shares": 102.0735294117647, "fill_id": "fe7314f3-0cd8-456c-9cde-bde0d56c2b4d"}