Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? ↗

Price rose 9.1pp from 36.9% to 46.0% over 13.5h (spike), then reversed. Now at 43.5%, down 2.5pp from peak, 2.0h after the peak. [Prior context: 24h ago: 28.0%, 72h range: 25.0%-65.5%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = Trump explicitly agrees to Iranian oil sanction relief in April; NO = no agreement or continued hardline/escalation/talks stall. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. 
Momentum check: E=4, D=4, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Cessation D-collapse: raw D≈8 → collapsed D=4. 
Incremental only: E=4, D=4 (priced-in: E=2, D=1). 
Self-check: no change. 
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 37% to 46%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
Strong Divergence: Yes — the rise occurred amid ≥4 fresh D signals (talks in doubt/canceled, ship seizure escalation, Iran saying “no plans” for talks, Trump denying any softening on the blockade). None of the headlines report Trump agreeing to sanction relief; the closest E signals are process-only (delegations/security prep, “willingness/progress” quotes), while ★ resolution-level agreement is absent and key blockers increased. Given the escalation and diplomatic backsliding, a 9pp spike on talk-of-talks was not justified; expect some reversion.